Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2026-06 ]
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date
polymarket 3 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31 | 2026-05-31 | 0.3% | — | $37K | C | 0x22e576…d903 | ||
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7 | 2026-06-07 | 20.0% | $44K | $257K | C | 0x429735…96c7 | ||
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 69.0% | $12K | $46K | C | 0xb735a1…4e59 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KFM6RVW5P7",
"slug": "israel-announces-lebanon-ceasefire-extension-by",
"question": "Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"israel-lebanon",
"ceasefire-extension",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 339382,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}