Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 2.3% | $645 | $410K | C | 0x95783b…d04b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
official information from Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia from rules text
recent wire items
- Israel-Saudi normalization by 2027 remains a long shot Polymarket 5%
- Polymarket prices Israel and Saudi Arabia normalizing relations before 2027 at 5%, a near-zero probability.
- The Mecca alliance peace mission to Tehran reflects active diplomacy, but the market prices essentially no normalization breakthrough in the remaining weeks of 2026.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-V8TMF1B4H1) prices an Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 at 9%, higher than the normalization probability, indicating markets see conflict risk as more live than diplomatic progress.
- Resolves via uma_oracle; normalization typically requires a formal treaty or embassy exchange, setting a high bar for the year-end deadline.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4KV364R788",
"slug": "israel-and-saudi-arabia-normalize-relations-before-2027",
"question": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"diplomacy",
"israel-saudi-arabia",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 410120,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}