Will Iran conduct a nuclear test before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran nuclear test before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 2.6% | $122 | $230K | C | 0x765e5d…2c85 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Iran nuclear test before 2027 remains a long shot despite missile news Polymarket 4%
- The Polymarket contract on an Iranian nuclear test before 2027 sits at 4%, despite an active week of proliferation headlines.
- The UN nuclear chief's report that Iran has not repaired damaged facilities is consistent with the market's low probability, the infrastructure for a test appears absent.
- Trading volume on this contract surged 17,043% day over day, signaling the proliferation headlines are drawing sharp attention even as the price holds low.
- The Kalshi contract on Trump visiting Iran (CM-EVT-V9QGT2SSP7) sits at just 2%, suggesting the market sees diplomacy as even less likely than a test, both tail risks remain priced near zero.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-nuclear-test-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-nuclear-test-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-nuclear-test-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YQ6BFV3GX1",
"slug": "iran-nuclear-test-before-2027",
"question": "Will Iran conduct a nuclear test before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"nuclear-proliferation",
"iran",
"weapons-testing",
"middle-east",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 229922,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 27,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}