Will Iran's leader change by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-03 – 2026-12 ]
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 123 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammad Pakpour be head of state | 2026-03-05 | 0.6% | — | — | C | 0x6cd58c…49ae | ||
| Ali Larijani be head of state | 2026-03-18 | 0.2% | — | $237K | C | 0xa6093b…8222 | ||
| Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 71.5% | $239K | $4.75M | C | 0x25fb28…adbb | ||
| There be no Head of State | 2026-12-31 | 7.8% | $645 | $1.02M | C | 0x6397f0…46d6 | ||
| Reza Pahlavi be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 4.4% | $24K | $539K | C | 0xe6eb21…851f | ||
| Ahmad Vahidi be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 2.8% | $24K | $617K | C | 0x9bc5b4…fc61 | ||
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 2.2% | $24K | $772K | C | 0x0df7e8…c18c | ||
| Abbas Araghchi be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | $23K | $726K | C | 0x504088…f71c | ||
| Alireza Arafi be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | $24K | $2.16M | C | 0xa1b6eb…ebd6 | ||
| Hassan Rouhani be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | $23K | $870K | C | 0xa62f1b…2fde | ||
| Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | $23K | $875K | C | 0xb10aa3…4f3f | ||
| Hassan Khomeini be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $23K | $1.30M | C | 0xe19caa…3adf | ||
| Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $237 | $408K | C | 0xae6d22…a3ea | ||
| Sadegh Larijani be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $367 | $505K | C | 0x1c3443…9762 | ||
| Maryam Rajavi be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $329 | $785K | C | 0x370c14…f4aa | ||
| Navid Shomali be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $577 | $193K | C | 0xb937d9…c96f | ||
| Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $376 | $414K | C | 0xb74991…81a3 | ||
| Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $293 | $224K | C | 0xce9edc…0942 | ||
| Mohammad Khatami be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $23K | $5.05M | C | 0x4266ab…e1a1 | ||
| Nasir Hosseini be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $77 | $239K | C | 0xba797b…db18 | ||
| Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $290K | C | 0xfa0834…1820 | ||
| Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $500 | $326K | C | 0x011108…9404 | ||
| Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $10 | $1.76M | C | 0x7d9928…1156 | ||
| Massoud Rajavi be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $438 | $376K | C | 0x17a0a4…a185 | ||
| Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $519 | $3.66M | C | 0x821f35…8a02 | ||
| Reza Pirzadeh be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $328 | $127K | C | 0x68617e…949d | ||
| Mustafa Hijri be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $347 | $178K | C | 0x2883a5…e2ea | ||
| Ali Motahari be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $12 | $822K | C | 0x73d9b9…4da0 | ||
| Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $293 | $3.33M | C | 0xaa53ce…de7c | ||
| Saeed Jalili be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $535 | $368K | C | 0x6ab0ce…4d80 | ||
| Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $2.2K | $978K | C | 0xb174c3…c3a0 | ||
| Mohsen Araki be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $62 | $268K | C | 0xf62707…48b0 | ||
| Other be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x27a340…37a5 | ||
| O be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe9334e…431c | ||
| P be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbdfcdb…aea5 | ||
| Q be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfee5ba…eafb | ||
| R be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9cee46…1383 | ||
| S be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x508614…d905 | ||
| T be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6b4140…484d | ||
| U be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4e1832…ab47 | ||
| V be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x958617…cdef | ||
| W be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x591cf6…7a11 | ||
| X be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5fe34b…bfa3 | ||
| Y be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd0a250…61c3 | ||
| Z be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf1c076…741a | ||
| Aa be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x901637…42cc | ||
| Ab be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9ca7dc…0540 | ||
| Ac be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1d7bea…383d | ||
| Ad be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbf7184…4fcc | ||
| Ae be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2bd1e5…9f10 | ||
| Af be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x33ea08…9545 | ||
| Ag be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x49424f…c44d | ||
| Ah be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x904786…40cf | ||
| Ai be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x020364…eead | ||
| Aj be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4796ef…31e8 | ||
| Ak be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8926dc…2c2b | ||
| Al be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3f7b58…693e | ||
| Am be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x30c177…8b89 | ||
| An be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xeb05be…4f06 | ||
| Ao be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6746dd…1530 | ||
| Ap be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x06ade8…1039 | ||
| Aq be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdaa68d…8007 | ||
| Ar be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3af19c…8b31 | ||
| As be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x49210b…3cd5 | ||
| At be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x242c2b…dd1d | ||
| Au be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd3fd79…0a7c | ||
| Av be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x147dc4…7fc7 | ||
| Aw be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x70f04e…e829 | ||
| Ax be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcc9316…eeca | ||
| Ay be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xec0949…b415 | ||
| Az be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfb74fe…9f45 | ||
| Ba be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd5db37…84ae | ||
| Bb be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x73e02f…bb5f | ||
| Bc be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8f61a7…8097 | ||
| Bd be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x04992e…1337 | ||
| Be be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x348e2d…fffd | ||
| Bf be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x28f914…8f51 | ||
| Bg be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x76a06b…801a | ||
| Bh be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8e7242…345d | ||
| Bi be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x88069c…24e3 | ||
| Bj be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x72e4e3…27c0 | ||
| Bk be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbe457d…fe03 | ||
| Bl be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf7dfc2…d7a7 | ||
| Bm be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x01a6a3…f1a6 | ||
| Bn be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2f1a02…ac93 | ||
| Bo be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x82c358…4929 | ||
| Bp be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5bda46…5337 | ||
| Bq be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0543cf…9fb6 | ||
| Br be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc21325…cb6b | ||
| Bs be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9ad608…93f0 | ||
| Bt be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xac64cf…fe07 | ||
| Bu be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1e383c…63ff | ||
| Bv be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x74f487…8a0c | ||
| Bw be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5f6684…e898 | ||
| Bx be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x85d87d…7e42 | ||
| By be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x27e1e8…379a | ||
| Bz be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x18673c…8184 | ||
| Ca be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3b961c…4c2d | ||
| Cb be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9bc1ce…ccc4 | ||
| Cc be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x505431…1663 | ||
| Cd be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8c0be0…ae95 | ||
| Ce be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa8d1b4…03d3 | ||
| Cf be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8bd8d9…085d | ||
| Cg be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x02690d…dc0e | ||
| Ch be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc6e07f…f25b | ||
| Ci be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc9d2ca…8859 | ||
| Cj be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbea16c…8bda | ||
| Ck be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xaca956…5a62 | ||
| Cl be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x396542…750e | ||
| Cm be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x21db2e…3ac1 | ||
| Cn be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc70c3f…72e7 | ||
| Co be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7efc1b…547d | ||
| Cp be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6e6f61…3c90 | ||
| Cq be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf4ca15…1fe9 | ||
| Cr be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4e9420…e164 | ||
| Cs be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcd0aaa…9d0a | ||
| Ct be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x347d93…ea69 | ||
| Cu be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdcb123…6931 | ||
| Cv be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3278ec…e1ab | ||
| Cw be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x253970…4787 | ||
| Cx be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x15b1cc…2562 | ||
| Cy be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x86129a…d31b | ||
| Cz be head of state | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5b20e0…6f01 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Shariatmadari Iran head of state odds crash to zero 0% · $1.4M 24h
- Price at 0% is a near-total market rejection, traders see no realistic path to Shariatmadari leading Iran by year-end.
- $1.37M in 24h volume is 44% of all-time flow, marking this as one of the contract's highest-activity sessions.
- Fresh volume at a zero price typically reflects a definitive off-market development that has closed the question.
- Resolves end of 2026; current pricing implies the question is effectively settled in traders' minds.
- Capital writes off Shariatmadari as Iran head of state 0% · $1.5M 24h
- Market prices zero probability, crowd treats Shariatmadari as effectively eliminated from contention.
- $1.47M traded in 24h, representing 84% of all-time contract volume, near-total position flush.
- Massive one-day dominance of lifetime flow signals a decisive information event driving consensus to zero.
- Contract resolves end of 2026; current pricing implies no credible path to power within the horizon.
- Capital writes off Jalili's hold on Iranian leadership 0% · $189K 24h
- Price at 0%, Polymarket traders assign zero probability Jalili leads Iran through end-2026.
- 24h volume of $189K represents 52% of all-time contract liquidity, a decisive conviction flush.
- Fresh attention likely trails post-Khamenei succession signals or regime consolidation news sidelining Jalili.
- Contract resolves end-2026; zero pricing now forecloses meaningful recovery without a structural shock.
- Capital writes off Khatami as Iran head of state by year-end 0% · $1.4M 24h
- Polymarket prices Khatami at 0%, market treats outcome as resolved impossibility.
- 24h volume of $1.4M is 28% of all-time $5M, signaling a decisive, concentrated flush.
- Fresh attention likely driven by Iran leadership news cycle; flows confirm no credible path.
- Contract resolves end-2026; zero price leaves no residual risk premium to fade.
- Capital writes off Khatami as Iran year-end head of state 0% · $1.4M 24h
- Market prices zero probability Khatami holds or gains head-of-state status by end of 2026.
- 29% of all-time volume, $1.4M, flooded in over 24 hours, marking an extraordinary single-session conviction burst.
- Surge likely triggered by a definitive political development in Tehran cementing Khatami's exclusion from power.
- Contract resolves end of 2026; at 0% the crowd treats this as settled fact, not live risk.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-leader-end-of-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-leader-end-of-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-leader-end-of-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RHBS1Y2385",
"slug": "iran-leader-end-of-2026",
"question": "Will Iran's leader change by the end of 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran",
"leadership",
"politics",
"2026",
"head-of-state"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 123,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 34180716,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 13,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}