Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 2026? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2026-12 ]
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, | 2026-05-01 | 0.1% | — | $3.75M | C | 0x5d3782…f44d | ||
| May 31, | 2026-06-01 | 0.1% | — | $5.03M | C | 0xd39905…12ef | ||
| June 30, | 2026-07-01 | 0.1% | — | $5.50M | C | 0x6cb3ec…8ead | ||
| July 31, | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $4.0K | $1.11M | C | 0xc11f41…e480 | ||
| August 31, | 2026-08-31 | 2.2% | $4.5K | $12K | C | 0xaaa5a2…31f8 | ||
| October 31, | 2026-10-31 | 7.0% | $33 | $9.1K | C | 0xaff5b7…66e2 | ||
| December 31, | 2026-12-31 | 14.0% | $578 | $1.99M | C | 0xe846dd…cafa |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Iran uranium surrender by August 31 trades at near-zero odds 3% · $48K 24h
- Polymarket prices Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by Aug 31 at 3%, effectively ruled out.
- 24h volume $48K is 79% of all-time, the sharpest all-time concentration in this batch.
- Volume spike likely driven by nuclear talks news flow; market firmly rejecting the near-term scenario.
- Resolution deadline August 31, 2026 is five weeks away, leaving almost no runway.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Z3K4DFFZY1",
"slug": "iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by",
"question": "Will Iran agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran-nuclear",
"diplomatic-agreement",
"trump-administration",
"2026",
"enriched-uranium"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17404246,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 41,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}