Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 25.0% | $3.8K | $1.35M | C | 0xff68b3…58df |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Iran uranium enrichment end by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 22%
- Polymarket puts 22% odds on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.
- The airstrike pause and active diplomacy are positive signals, but the market prices the deal as unlikely, skepticism outweighs the ceasefire narrative.
- The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 58% on Polymarket, a notably higher probability, suggesting markets see shipping normalization as more achievable than a full nuclear deal.
- The Kalshi contract on Trump visiting Iran sits at only 3%, consistent with talks being conducted at lower diplomatic levels.
- Iran enrichment deal by year-end stays a long shot at 23 percent Polymarket 23%
- Polymarket prices a 23% chance Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.
- The House resolution signals congressional pressure to de-escalate, but the Polymarket contract at 23% reflects the market treating a full enrichment halt as still an unlikely outcome this year.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-QNQ4VPVP80) puts the Iranian regime's collapse before 2027 at just 9%, suggesting markets see the conflict as sustained but not regime-ending.
- Resolution depends on an official Iranian commitment to halt enrichment, as adjudicated by the Polymarket UMA oracle.
- Iran uranium enrichment halt by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 22%
- Polymarket prices 22% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31.
- Trump's nuclear-site threats and disclosed war costs signal escalation, not negotiation, keeping enrichment-halt odds well below 50%.
- The Kalshi contract on the US reopening its embassy in Iran sits at only 7%, reinforcing how far markets are from pricing diplomatic normalization.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the question turns on a formal Iranian government commitment, not a temporary halt.
- Iran uranium enrichment deal by year-end wavers at 16 percent Polymarket 16%
- Polymarket prices only 16% on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.
- Nine consecutive nights of US strikes and Khamenei's explicit rejection of a ceasefire are consistent with the low 16% pricing.
- Iran simultaneously signaling ongoing diplomatic exchanges with the US via Rubio creates a cross-current the market is not yet resolving upward.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; a formal enrichment-halt announcement by any recognized authority before December 31 would settle YES.
- Iran uranium enrichment halt by year-end holds below 25% Polymarket 21%
- Polymarket prices a 21% probability that Iran agrees to end uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026.
- Nine straight nights of US airstrikes and Khamenei rejecting ceasefire terms are consistent with the low 21% probability; talks have collapsed.
- The Polymarket contract on Iranian regime survival (CM-EVT-QNQ4VPVP80) sits at 10% for regime fall before 2027, suggesting the market prices continued conflict rather than resolution.
- Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; the enrichment halt must be formally agreed and verifiable to settle YES.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4CKJ2D3T77",
"slug": "iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Iran agree to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran-nuclear",
"diplomacy",
"2026-resolution",
"trump-administration",
"middle-east"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1352736,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 29,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}