Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

polymarket 5 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31	2026-12-31	22.0%	—	$135K	C	`0xf59fe7…dfb2`
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30	2026-12-31	2.6%	—	$72K	C	`0xf2982d…25d3`
Insurrection Act invoked by April 30	2026-12-31	0.4%	—	$36K	C	`0xc5e94a…fd4b`
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31	2026-12-31	0.1%	—	$361K	C	`0x7c6256…8dd3`
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31	2026-12-31	0.1%	—	$487K	C	`0x2a1c40…2c3f`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	uncommitted	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 5 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/insurrection-act-invoked-by/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/insurrection-act-invoked-by.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("insurrection-act-invoked-by")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-CZP41RXMV3",
  "slug": "insurrection-act-invoked-by",
  "question": "Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "trump",
    "politics",
    "us-federal-government",
    "executive-action",
    "constitutional-law",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 5,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 1090338,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 38,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →