Will the Insurrection Act be invoked in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolves 2026-02 – 2026-12 ]
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 | 2026-02-01 | 0.1% | — | $487K | C | 0x2a1c40…2c3f | ||
| March 31 | 2026-04-01 | 0.1% | — | $361K | C | 0x7c6256…8dd3 | ||
| April 30 | 2026-05-01 | 0.4% | — | $36K | C | 0xc5e94a…fd4b | ||
| June 30 | 2026-07-01 | 0.1% | — | $79K | C | 0xf2982d…25d3 | ||
| July 31 | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $3.4K | C | 0x3f6198…9a86 | ||
| December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 20.0% | $134 | $151K | C | 0xf59fe7…dfb2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Insurrection Act invoked by July 31? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/insurrection-act-invoked-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/insurrection-act-invoked-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("insurrection-act-invoked-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CZP41RXMV3",
"slug": "insurrection-act-invoked-by",
"question": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"insurrection-act",
"trump",
"politics",
"executive-power",
"2026",
"us-governance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1117352,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 38,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}