Will SpaceX conduct at least X launches in June 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 11 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | — | $1.5K | A | 0xcfd54f…afe1 | ||
| Exactly 11 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $70 | $748 | A | 0xad141a…c0b5 | ||
| Exactly 12 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $19 | $1.0K | A | 0xbb4888…50ec | ||
| Exactly 13 | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | $23 | $1.7K | A | 0x29b3fe…bac0 | ||
| 14+ | 2026-06-30 | 100.0% | $315 | $6.9K | A | 0x3946cb…0e10 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between June 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.spacex.com/launches sources (2) · single authority
- spacex.com venue-listed
- https://www.spacex.com/launches source of record from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-29 | 0% |
| YES | Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-29 | 100% |
| NO | Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in June 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in June 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will SpaceX have fewer than 11 launches in June 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-23 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-spacex-launches-in-june-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-spacex-launches-in-june-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-spacex-launches-in-june-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GJGPJJRLC9",
"slug": "how-many-spacex-launches-in-june-2026",
"question": "Will SpaceX conduct at least X launches in June 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"spacex",
"launch-cadence",
"tech",
"space-industry",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11856,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "spacex.com",
"url": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://www.spacex.com/launches",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}