How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election? [ resolves 2026-09-20 (47D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Between 325 and 339 | 2026-09-20 | 29.0% | — | $26K | C | 0xe62ab8…e1b1 | ||
| Between 340 and 354 | 2026-09-20 | 19.0% | — | $47K | C | 0x5ee389…ca68 | ||
| Between 310 and 324 | 2026-09-20 | 17.8% | $102 | $12K | C | 0x8e41c5…6d4c | ||
| 355 or more | 2026-09-20 | 10.0% | $387 | $37K | C | 0x2421eb…3176 | ||
| Between 295 and 309 | 2026-09-20 | 4.5% | $187 | $11K | C | 0x0a9bb5…2f57 | ||
| Fewer than 280 | 2026-09-20 | 4.3% | — | $25K | C | 0x430751…4e16 | ||
| Between 280 and 294 | 2026-09-20 | 2.4% | $202 | $15K | C | 0x070312…3d7a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation from rules text
recent wire items
- United Russia winning 295, 309 Duma seats trades at just 8% 8% · $22K 24h
- Polymarket prices this specific seat-band at 8%, implying the market expects United Russia's haul to land elsewhere.
- $22.2K in 24h is 33% of all-time volume, clustering attention on Russian Duma seat-distribution contracts.
- Paired with the 280, 294 band contract at 9%, traders appear to be mapping out the full seat distribution.
- Duma election context is the resolution driver; watch for official Russian electoral commission guidance.
- United Russia landing 280, 294 Duma seats also priced as unlikely 9% · $19K 24h
- Polymarket prices this adjacent seat-band at 9%, nearly identical to the 295, 309 band, both treated as low-probability outcomes.
- 26% of all-time volume, $18.6K, arrived in 24h, tracking in tandem with the sister contract above.
- Coordinated volume across adjacent bands signals systematic seat-distribution modeling, not random speculation.
- Resolution hinges on official Duma election results; the market's probability mass appears concentrated outside both these ranges.
- Heavy trading tests United Russia's 295, 309 seat range at slim odds 5% · $10K 24h
- Polymarket prices this seat-band at 5%, traders see a higher or lower outcome as far more likely.
- $10.4K in 24h is 37% of all-time volume, a notable spike for a low-probability band contract.
- Volume alongside the adjacent 280, 294 band suggests traders are mapping probability across multiple Duma outcome buckets ahead of the election.
- Contract resolves on United Russia's official seat count in the next State Duma election.
- Odds stay near zero on United Russia claiming 280, 294 Duma seats 1% · $11K 24h
- Polymarket prices this band at just 1%, the market strongly discounts a result this low for United Russia.
- $11.1K in 24h equals 34% of all-time volume, running parallel to the 295, 309 band spike.
- Near-zero pricing with double-digit all-time volume share suggests traders are closing out or hedging positions rather than initiating new longs.
- Resolves on the official United Russia seat count in the next State Duma.
- United Russia 310-324 seat band trades under 25% 24% · $23K 24h
- Polymarket prices the specific seat band at 24%, traders lean toward a result outside this narrow range.
- 24h volume of $23K is 49% of all-time flow, nearly half of all lifetime trading in one session.
- Russian State Duma election campaign activity or polling shifts appear to be driving fresh positioning.
- Resolves on the official seat count for United Russia in the next State Duma election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
"slug": "how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
"question": "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"russia",
"duma-2026",
"seat-count",
"legislative-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 172741,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}