How many Republican governors will there be after the 2026 midterm elections? [ resolved 2026-11-04 ]
Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 22 | 2026-11-03 | 97.2% | — | $47K | C | 0xc72171…2ffb | ||
| Exactly 22 or 23 | 2026-11-03 | 1.5% | — | $8.6K | C | 0x679d63…5fad | ||
| Exactly 24 or 25 | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | $32K | C | 0x495cde…bf2e | ||
| Exactly 26 or 27 | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | $17K | C | 0xc21ac0…409d | ||
| Exactly 28 or 29 | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | $557K | C | 0x52f293…1879 | ||
| Exactly 30 or 31 | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | $7.6K | C | 0x1ada88…3aad | ||
| 32 or more | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | $14K | C | 0x116ab3…113c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | polymarket | 2026-11-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 30 or 31 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Republican Party hold 32 or more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-republican-governors-after-the-2026-midterm-elections/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-republican-governors-after-the-2026-midterm-elections |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-republican-governors-after-the-2026-midterm-elections") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6RHNGNBKY4",
"slug": "how-many-republican-governors-after-the-2026-midterm-elections",
"question": "How many Republican governors will there be after the 2026 midterm elections?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-governors",
"2026-midterms",
"republican-party",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 683806,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}