Will Trump sell any Gold Cards in 2026? [ resolves 2026-04 – 2026-12 ]
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $0 | 2026-04-24 | 0.1% | — | $44K | C | 0xac0e8c…4713 | ||
| $1 | 2026-12-31 | 74.8% | — | $17K | C | 0x326df6…4a96 | ||
| $101 | 2026-12-31 | 3.1% | — | $41K | C | 0x960324…7f7a | ||
| $1,000 | 2026-12-31 | 1.4% | — | $11K | C | 0xab77a3…914f | ||
| $2,500 | 2026-12-31 | 2.2% | — | $10K | C | 0xfff9fd…f887 | ||
| $5,000 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $12K | C | 0xcfaa15…7688 | ||
| $10,000 | 2026-12-31 | 1.8% | — | $117K | C | 0xb51d73…db60 | ||
| $25,000 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $11K | C | 0xaca5ae…65d8 | ||
| ≥ $100,000 | 2026-12-31 | 4.0% | — | $25K | C | 0xa32587…f974 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Donald Trump has announced a “Gold Card” plan to offer a pathway citizenship to citizenship in exchange for a $5m payment.
This market will resolve according to the number of individuals who purchase a “Gold Card” between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Any individual participating in a new program created after February 26, 2025, by the Trump Administration which is either referred to as a Gold Card, or involves a new pathway to U.S. citizenship, work permits, or any other form of legal residency status in exchange for payments or investment will qualify.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official information from the Trump Administration. If the Trump Administration does not publish the number of individuals who receive Gold Cards by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- official information from the Trump Administration from rules text · editorial
- consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-V2X544SD61",
"slug": "how-many-gold-cards-will-trump-sell-in-2026",
"question": "Will Trump sell any Gold Cards in 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"merchandise",
"geopolitics",
"2026",
"quantitative"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 287309,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 44,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Trump Administration",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the Trump Administration",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}