Will the Federal Reserve make fewer than X rate cuts in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 0 | 2026-12-31 | 68.8% | $4.9K | $4.60M | A | 0xd4e77b…8527 | ||
| ≤ 25 | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | $5.4K | $1.33M | A | 0x5e082f…905c | ||
| ≤ 50 | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | $5.1K | $1.34M | A | 0xe0d9f5…c1cd | ||
| ≤ 75 | 2026-12-31 | 2.8% | $4.2K | $1.22M | A | 0x8d4966…e67c | ||
| ≤ 100 | 2026-12-31 | 1.1% | $5.2K | $1.34M | A | 0xaece8d…c7c4 | ||
| ≤ 125 | 2026-12-31 | 0.8% | $6.3K | $1.56M | A | 0x7ee722…fd18 | ||
| ≤ 150 | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $9.6K | $2.77M | A | 0x4914bf…fe75 | ||
| ≤ 175 | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $7.5K | $2.20M | A | 0x2368d2…9a89 | ||
| ≤ 200 | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $15K | $2.06M | A | 0xfe28cb…8e52 | ||
| ≤ 225 | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $8.2K | $3.06M | A | 0x4ec6fc…248b | ||
| ≤ 250 | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $51K | $3.71M | A | 0x757c14…bc87 | ||
| ≤ 275 | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $38K | $3.71M | A | 0x1adf07…1ae3 | ||
| ≤ 300 | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $17K | $2.58M | A | 0xffa0ac…9c78 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Fomc | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0TSMZBY6R6",
"slug": "how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make fewer than X rate cuts in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-rates",
"economic-policy",
"fed",
"monetary-policy",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 31476721,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Fomc",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}