Will the US conduct military action against more than one country in 2026? [ resolves 2026-01 – 2026-12 ]
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 countries | 2026-01-03 | 100.0% | — | $9.5K | C | 0x7f2254…ac0f | ||
| 1 country | 2026-01-07 | 0.1% | — | $60K | C | 0xa385f6…3efc | ||
| 2 countries | 2026-01-11 | 0.1% | — | $31K | C | 0xf8f7b8…987f | ||
| 3 countries | 2026-02-28 | 0.1% | — | $59K | C | 0x90d570…e4e0 | ||
| 4 countries | 2026-03-08 | 0.1% | — | — | C | 0xdea318…9e80 | ||
| 5 countries | 2026-03-19 | 0.1% | — | — | C | 0xea38a0…3680 | ||
| 6 countries | 2026-05-07 | 0.1% | — | $544K | C | 0x066f23…ea0b | ||
| 7 countries | 2026-05-16 | 0.1% | — | $62K | C | 0xea0471…245c | ||
| 8 countries | 2026-12-31 | 47.7% | — | $304K | C | 0x713ab2…dfda | ||
| 9 countries | 2026-12-31 | 30.5% | — | $36K | C | 0x5759fb…f692 | ||
| 10 countries | 2026-12-31 | 11.3% | — | $26K | C | 0x30a1d6…1b86 | ||
| 11 countries | 2026-12-31 | 8.3% | $169 | $25K | C | 0x4fa0df…b39a | ||
| 12 countries | 2026-12-31 | 1.9% | — | $44K | C | 0xabb749…f6b1 | ||
| 13 countries | 2026-12-31 | 1.3% | — | $97K | C | 0xf06d28…98c8 | ||
| 14 countries | 2026-12-31 | 0.8% | $6 | $149K | C | 0xa9433e…4ba0 | ||
| 15 or more countries | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $125K | C | 0x43ede6…45e9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- US strikes fewer than 8 countries in 2026 stays favored Polymarket ladder
- The Kalshi ladder prices 42% that the US strikes 8 or more countries in 2026, with volume up 9,312% day over day, the highest activity signal in today's data set.
- Ongoing US strikes on Iran plus Houthi-linked Red Sea activity are driving fresh attention to this contract, reflected in the extraordinary volume surge.
- The sharp drop-off above 8 countries (42%) versus above 9 countries (30%) shows the market concentrating risk at exactly the 8-country threshold.
- Resolves via the named person or source; the counting methodology, what constitutes a distinct 'country struck', is the decisive settlement edge.
- US strikes 8-plus countries in 2026 prices below the threshold Polymarket ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts only 35% on the US striking 8 or more countries in 2026, with probability falling sharply above that level.
- Iran attacking Gulf states including Oman raises the count of nations drawn into the conflict, but the market still prices 8-country US strike threshold as unlikely.
- The distribution drops to 31% at 9 countries and 13% at 10, showing the market sees current escalation as bounded, not a regional cascade.
- Resolves via Kalshi's named resolution source; the strike count methodology and what qualifies as a distinct country engagement will be the key settlement edge.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
"slug": "how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026",
"question": "Will the US conduct military action against more than one country in 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"us-military",
"2026",
"international-conflict",
"armed-intervention",
"quantitative"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1572291,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}