Will the US conduct military action against 5 or more different countries during 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 0 | 2026-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $9.5K | C | 0x7f2254…ac0f | ||
| ≤ 1 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $60K | C | 0xa385f6…3efc | ||
| ≤ 2 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $31K | C | 0xf8f7b8…987f | ||
| ≤ 3 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $59K | C | 0x90d570…e4e0 | ||
| ≤ 4 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | — | C | 0xdea318…9e80 | ||
| ≤ 5 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | — | C | 0xea38a0…3680 | ||
| ≤ 6 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $544K | C | 0x066f23…ea0b | ||
| ≤ 7 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $62K | C | 0xea0471…245c | ||
| ≤ 8 | 2026-12-31 | 26.0% | $38 | $281K | C | 0x713ab2…dfda | ||
| ≤ 9 | 2026-12-31 | 23.9% | $636 | $26K | C | 0x5759fb…f692 | ||
| ≤ 10 | 2026-12-31 | 17.2% | — | $21K | C | 0x30a1d6…1b86 | ||
| ≤ 11 | 2026-12-31 | 3.9% | — | $21K | C | 0x4fa0df…b39a | ||
| ≤ 12 | 2026-12-31 | 8.9% | $170 | $38K | C | 0xabb749…f6b1 | ||
| ≤ 13 | 2026-12-31 | 5.3% | $93 | $93K | C | 0xf06d28…98c8 | ||
| ≤ 14 | 2026-12-31 | 3.3% | $149 | $145K | C | 0xa9433e…4ba0 | ||
| ≥ 15 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $124K | C | 0x43ede6…45e9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5855JBL478",
"slug": "how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026",
"question": "Will the US conduct military action against 5 or more different countries during 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"us-military",
"2026",
"international-conflict",
"armed-intervention",
"quantitative"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1514423,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 24,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"discretionary_trigger_no_source"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}