Trump approval rating, 2026 [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]

polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by strike

polymarket 5 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≤ 20%	2026-12-31	2.7%	—	$3.0K	B	`0x9d8dc9…d49a`
≤ 25%	2026-12-31	6.0%	—	$2.1K	B	`0xd34dad…3dc7`
≤ 30%	2026-12-31	7.0%	—	$6.4K	B	`0x0065f5…8afa`
≤ 35%	2026-12-31	41.0%	$99	$51K	B	`0xd2e96e…56b3`
≤ 40%	2026-12-31	99.9%	—	$20K	B	`0xdd5dbe…b869`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	natesilver.net	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 5 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-VNTLCWF6Y5",
  "slug": "how-low-will-trumps-approval-rating-go-in-2026",
  "question": "Trump approval rating, 2026",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump",
    "approval-ratings",
    "us-politics",
    "2026",
    "polling"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 5,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 81913,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 79,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "natesilver.net",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →