Will the 10-year Treasury yield reach 2% or lower before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1% | 2026-12-31 | 3.8% | — | $40K | A | 0x0828a0…6c15 | ||
| ≤ 2% | 2026-12-31 | 15.0% | — | $368 | A | 0x24f7bf…6526 | ||
| ≤ 3% | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | — | $724 | A | 0x31c7f0…7f02 | ||
| ≤ 3.5% | 2026-12-31 | 26.0% | — | $32K | A | 0x01cd5a…7d19 | ||
| ≤ 3.6% | 2026-12-31 | 23.0% | — | $4.9K | A | 0x7e0cee…cb3a | ||
| ≤ 3.7% | 2026-12-31 | 46.0% | — | $26K | A | 0x6a2359…a45f | ||
| ≤ 3.8% | 2026-12-31 | 34.0% | $7 | $40K | A | 0x87de09…1eab | ||
| ≤ 3.9% | 2026-12-31 | 47.0% | $24 | $41K | A | 0x691fa7…211e | ||
| ≤ 4% | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $32K | A | 0x665798…f246 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Department Of The Treasury | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025 recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BD6QB5GC44",
"slug": "how-low-will-10-year-treasury-yield-get-before-2027",
"question": "Will the 10-year Treasury yield reach 2% or lower before 2027?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"treasury-yields",
"economic-indicators",
"2026",
"fed-policy",
"fixed-income"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 216236,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Department Of The Treasury",
"resolution_source_url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}