US inflation rate, 2026 [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3% | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $280K | A | 0xcd0125…6b2d | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $177K | A | 0xbef751…5c06 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-12-31 | 97.8% | $556 | $247K | A | 0x1f61db…d052 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-12-31 | 61.0% | $457 | $36K | A | 0xf4a457…eaad | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-12-31 | 34.0% | $7.4K | $207K | A | 0xa792f0…f59f | ||
| ≥ 6% | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | $787 | $50K | A | 0xa7abe7…d657 | ||
| ≥ 8% | 2026-12-31 | 7.4% | — | $39K | A | 0x04a832…4ddd | ||
| ≥ 10% | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $10 | $42K | A | 0x024418…4fea |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Bureau Of Labor Statistics | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm recent wire items
- Inflation >4% in 2026: 98%; CPI currently 3.9%
- Polymarket prices 98% chance CPI inflation exceeds 4% in 2026.
- CPI year-over-year (FRED) currently stands at 3.9%.
- Market implies near-certainty that CPI breaches 4%, yet it is only 10bps below that threshold now.
- Resolves when any 2026 monthly CPI print is reported above 4% YoY.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NN523F6SZ3",
"slug": "how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026",
"question": "US inflation rate, 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"inflation",
"economy",
"macroeconomics",
"price-levels",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1077979,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau Of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}