TX-15 House winner? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the House member sworn in for TX-15 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
Library of Congress committed source
recent wire items
- TX-15 House race tightens with GOP at 40% 40% · $88K 24h
- 40% puts Republicans as underdogs in TX-15, a notable framing for a Texas seat.
- $88K in 24h represents 31% of all-time volume, a sharp single-session burst.
- Competitive House map attention; TX-15 pricing suggests district-level vulnerability.
- Resolves on November 2026 general election result.
- TX-15 House seat draws buyers below 50% on the Dem side 45% · $83K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Democratic TX-15 House win at 45%, Republicans hold a slim implied edge.
- 47% of all-time contract volume hit in a single session, the largest single-day share of this batch.
- A near-even price with surging volume signals late-entry attention to a district shifting competitive.
- Resolves on the TX-15 2026 House general election result.
- Democrats hold a slim edge in the TX-15 House race 62% · $85K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Democratic win in TX-15 at 62%, a narrow lean in a competitive district.
- $85K in 24h is 66% of all-time volume, indicating this market is relatively thin but actively accumulating.
- TX-15 sits in the Rio Grande Valley; fresh attention here often precedes candidate or polling news.
- Resolves on the certified winner of the 2026 TX-15 House general election.
- Democrats lead in TX-15 House race with odds above 50% 58% · $24K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Democratic win in Texas's 15th congressional district at 58%, a narrow lean.
- 63% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, compressing the contract's trading history into one session.
- TX-15 is a competitive Rio Grande Valley seat; fresh polling or candidate news likely drove the inflow.
- Resolves on the official TX-15 election result; race remains inside the margin of conviction.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/housetx15-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/housetx15-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("housetx15-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-F1CD0HM6W4",
"slug": "housetx15-26",
"question": "TX-15 House winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"texas-politics",
"house-elections",
"2027-elections",
"us-congress",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 53077,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}