PA-08 House winner? [ resolved 2026-11-04 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the House member sworn in for PA-08 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
Library of Congress committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Democratic win the House race for PA-8? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
| NO | Will Republican win the House race for PA-8? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Democrats hold 86% in PA-8 as fresh volume returns to the race 86% · $20K 24h
- 86% pricing establishes the Democratic candidate as a heavy favorite in Pennsylvania's 8th district.
- Kalshi recorded $20K in 24h, 27% of all-time volume, a moderate but notable single-session reactivation.
- PA-8 returning to volume after a quieter stretch suggests polling, candidate news, or House majority modeling.
- Resolves on certified PA-8 House election result.
- PA-8 House race trades as a competitive toss-up at 33% 33% · $17K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republican at 33%, placing the seat in Democratic-lean territory and making this one of the cycle's genuine competitive flips.
- 24h volume represents 67% of all-time handle, the largest single-session share in this batch, flagging a dramatic surge in contract activity.
- PA-8 is a Biden-era swing district; a two-thirds-of-lifetime volume day implies a specific local catalyst is in play.
- Contract resolves on the 2026 PA-8 general election outcome.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/housepa8-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/housepa8-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("housepa8-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RB6J9TCV17",
"slug": "housepa8-26",
"question": "PA-08 House winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"pa-08",
"house-election",
"2026-midterm",
"us-politics",
"congressional-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6593,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}