Will the winner of the Arizona 2nd Congressional District House race be determined by January 4, 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the House member sworn in for AZ-02 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · single authority
Library of Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Buyers back Republicans in AZ-2 House race at 80% 80% · $256K 24h
- Market prices a Republican AZ-2 House win at 80%, solid but not settled.
- $256K in 24h represents 55% of all-time volume, majority of all trading occurring today.
- Election Day 2026 is today; live precinct returns will drive rapid price discovery.
- Kalshi contract resolves on certified House race winner for Arizona's 2nd district.
- Democrats long shot in AZ-2 House race at 19% 19% · $52K 24h
- Market prices a Democratic AZ-2 House win at just 19%, clear underdog position.
- $52K in 24h is 45% of all-time; heavy proportional activity on the trailing side.
- Paired directly with Spike 2, the opposing Republican contract priced at 80%.
- Any narrowing of live returns today would reprice this contract rapidly given thin all-time liquidity.
- Republicans hold a 75%+ edge in AZ-2 on record volume day 77% · $261K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican win in Arizona's 2nd district at 77%, a solid but not decisive lean.
- 65% of all-time contract volume, $260K, hit today, making this the most active session in the contract's life.
- Election Day results in AZ-2 are live, and the market is staying above the 75% threshold under pressure.
- Resolves on certified AZ-2 House result; the remaining 23% reflects genuine competitive risk.
- Democratic AZ-2 odds stay at 25% despite heavy Election Day trade 23% · $82K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Democratic win in Arizona's 2nd district at 23%, a decided underdog stance against the 77% Republican pricing.
- 61% of all-time volume, $81K, cleared in one day, the most active session this contract has seen.
- With Election Day results live, the market is holding the Democratic side just under 25% despite maximum-attention volume.
- Resolves on certified AZ-2 outcome; sustained pricing near 23% under heavy volume suggests real competitive data is not moving the needle toward Democrats.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/houseaz2-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/houseaz2-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("houseaz2-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-23N8BBXJL5",
"slug": "houseaz2-26",
"question": "Will the winner of the Arizona 2nd Congressional District House race be determined by January 4, 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-house-2026",
"arizona-politics",
"congressional-election",
"az-02",
"electoral-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5819,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}