Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner [ resolved 2026-07-30 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 51 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bev Craig | 2026-07-30 | 100.0% | $6.9K | $197K | B | 0x1c5998…2083 | ||
| Kate Green | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $3.4K | B | 0xa77410…01af | ||
| Laura Evans | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $7.8K | B | 0xbdbb50…a6d3 | ||
| Nick Buckley | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $5.7K | B | 0x52a1a0…e5e6 | ||
| Dan Barker | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $25K | B | 0xc444b0…6bc0 | ||
| Hannah Spencer | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $4.3K | B | 0x5860b7…381b | ||
| Jake Austin | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $1.6K | B | 0x35843a…4a6a | ||
| Paul Dennett | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $2.6K | B | 0x6732c5…b47e | ||
| Arooj Shah | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $1.8K | B | 0x5cbd4a…a23b | ||
| Geraldine Coggins | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | $2 | $57K | B | 0x9e991a…c9b6 | ||
| Marlon Scott West | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | $3.2K | $17K | B | 0x967abd…0de3 | ||
| Richard Kilpatrick | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $1.8K | B | 0x3a3d6b…5395 | ||
| Sian Astley | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | $47 | $17K | B | 0x86d711…5f77 | ||
| George Galloway | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $2.2K | B | 0x7c7517…9b05 | ||
| Person F | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xac17db…4ed9 | ||
| Person G | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x656e04…a941 | ||
| Person H | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa1a5c6…f0f5 | ||
| Person I | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2e265c…ba93 | ||
| Person J | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2288b4…e39c | ||
| Person K | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x19c0ea…cc2a | ||
| Person L | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8f0bc7…1b58 | ||
| Person M | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbfb37b…1f9c | ||
| Person N | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8a33ad…0617 | ||
| Person O | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8f07cf…77f2 | ||
| Person P | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4d4698…e4a2 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x69885a…4ad4 | ||
| Person R | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x13d489…150a | ||
| Person S | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1044aa…2c7a | ||
| Person T | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa706e9…ad44 | ||
| Person U | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2e286d…3d44 | ||
| Person V | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf69822…b8d9 | ||
| Person W | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4d6dfa…615e | ||
| Person X | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0f8daa…6318 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbc3d2e…2838 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xfe5572…ff6a | ||
| Person AA | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9c641c…58ab | ||
| Person AB | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe3a270…5201 | ||
| Person AC | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xedae9d…67bf | ||
| Person AD | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0544b2…4cc1 | ||
| Person AE | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xea65e5…7c58 | ||
| Person AF | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x15def5…68d8 | ||
| Person AG | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc52e36…2b68 | ||
| Person AH | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbca078…2fb4 | ||
| Person AI | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4a264c…5265 | ||
| Person AJ | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1dcf59…16f3 | ||
| Person AK | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd0fff9…dfeb | ||
| Person AL | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x86dba9…ddfe | ||
| Person AM | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2388ee…a602 | ||
| Person AN | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6c1829…60f5 | ||
| Person AO | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9364af…6376 | ||
| Someone else | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc286a3…0b79 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · single authority
- gmelects.org.uk source of record venue-listed
- Greater Manchester Combined Authority from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 100% |
| NO | Will Kate Green win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Laura Evans win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Nick Buckley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Dan Barker win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Hannah Spencer win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jake Austin win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Paul Dennett win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Arooj Shah win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Marlon Scott West win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Richard Kilpatrick win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Sian Astley win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will George Galloway win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (14 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-winner-20260619154130299/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-winner-20260619154130299 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("greater-manchester-mayoral-election-winner-20260619154130299") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-78VSPM19T0",
"slug": "greater-manchester-mayoral-election-winner-20260619154130299",
"question": "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"uk-elections",
"greater-manchester",
"mayoral-elections",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 51,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 344677,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.gmelects.org.uk/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "gmelects.org.uk",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "gmelects.org.uk",
"url": "https://www.gmelects.org.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Greater Manchester Combined Authority",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}