Will the Labour candidate receive the most first preference votes in the Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? [ resolved 2026-07-30 ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 36 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bev Craig | 2026-07-30 | 100.0% | $18 | $22K | B | 0xbd2f1d…c0fb | ||
| Kate Green | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $1.5K | B | 0xa67cc9…e005 | ||
| Laura Evans | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $922 | B | 0x13ab42…19e3 | ||
| Nick Buckley | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $1.1K | B | 0x5afbda…0b41 | ||
| Dan Barker | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | $84 | $18K | B | 0x904f3a…fc0e | ||
| Hannah Spencer | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $2.2K | B | 0xdbb122…660f | ||
| Jake Austin | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $1.1K | B | 0xd46dcb…ea00 | ||
| Paul Dennett | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $1.1K | B | 0x7b656c…bc50 | ||
| Arooj Shah | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $1.7K | B | 0xada7ba…b436 | ||
| Geraldine Coggins | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $2.8K | B | 0xbac2ce…03b3 | ||
| Marlon Scott West | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $1.0K | B | 0x443dba…866f | ||
| Richard Kilpatrick | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x937838…159d | ||
| Sian Astley | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | $5.5K | B | 0x5a6c2d…ac16 | ||
| Person E | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb38a6d…3cf3 | ||
| Person F | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x83ed30…2818 | ||
| Person G | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x53e938…cc60 | ||
| Person H | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x561a02…adba | ||
| Person I | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa7ad92…0fc2 | ||
| Person J | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb9f527…15f2 | ||
| Person K | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4fb23b…b7dd | ||
| Person L | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x354f66…197f | ||
| Person M | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc845e7…ecc2 | ||
| Person N | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0188a5…c25d | ||
| Person O | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0124e0…f86a | ||
| Person P | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8ada25…c62f | ||
| Person Q | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe90748…209a | ||
| Person R | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1a47a5…5f0c | ||
| Person S | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7e0796…8b98 | ||
| Person T | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x76c8d1…b8ed | ||
| Person U | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x40fbd8…4d58 | ||
| Person V | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x84207e…e85c | ||
| Person W | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa6f39d…7ee6 | ||
| Person X | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x04e1c5…4e28 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x531745…c3d2 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe0fb92…7560 | ||
| Someone else | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4d48fa…d6c4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · single authority
- gmelects.org.uk source of record venue-listed
- Greater Manchester Combined Authority from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Bev Craig win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 100% |
| NO | Will Laura Evans win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Dan Barker win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Hannah Spencer win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jake Austin win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Paul Dennett win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Arooj Shah win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Sian Astley win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Geraldine Coggins win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Marlon Scott West win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Kate Green win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Nick Buckley win the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (12 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-most-1st-preference-votes-20260625163310509/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/greater-manchester-mayoral-election-most-1st-preference-votes-20260625163310509 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("greater-manchester-mayoral-election-most-1st-preference-votes-20260625163310509") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1ZNZM37HZ5",
"slug": "greater-manchester-mayoral-election-most-1st-preference-votes-20260625163310509",
"question": "Will the Labour candidate receive the most first preference votes in the Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"uk-local-elections",
"greater-manchester",
"2026",
"mayoral-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 36,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 59670,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 71,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.gmelects.org.uk/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "gmelects.org.uk",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "gmelects.org.uk",
"url": "https://www.gmelects.org.uk/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Greater Manchester Combined Authority",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}