CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will a specific candidate win the Iowa gubernatorial election by a specified date? [ resolves 2027-01-14 (225D) ]

Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date
kalshi 2 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Iowa 2027-01-14 52.0%
$3.8K $46K
A GOVPARTYIA-26-D
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Iowa 2027-01-14 46.0%
$8.3K $41K
A GOVPARTYIA-26-R
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff US State Governments link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 2 markets · share this text
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Iowa pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "US State Governments"
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/govpartyia-26/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/govpartyia-26.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("govpartyia-26")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8D7ZTR8991",
  "slug": "govpartyia-26",
  "question": "Will a specific candidate win the Iowa gubernatorial election by a specified date?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "2027-election",
    "iowa-politics",
    "us-governor",
    "gubernatorial-race",
    "partisan-outcome"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 2,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 86373,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "US State Governments",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.usa.gov/state-governments",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →