Florida Governor winner? [ resolves 2026-11 – 2027-01 ]
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | US State Governments | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Florida pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "US State Governments" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
US State Governments committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Buyers back Florida GOP governor odds at 68% 68% · $3.2M 24h
- At 68%, Kalshi traders price a clear Republican favorite in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race.
- $3.2M in 24h trading equals 43% of all-time contract volume, an outsized single-day commitment.
- Florida governorship has trended Republican for two cycles; heavy volume here reinforces, not challenges, that baseline.
- Resolves on the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election result.
- Florida governor stays a Republican hold at 62% 62% · $1.5M 24h
- Kalshi prices Republican retention at 62%, a solid but not certain hold.
- 24h volume of $1.5M is 30% of all-time, the single largest single-day draw on this contract.
- Election Day activity on 2026 midterm ballots driving concentrated end-of-line positioning.
- Resolves on certified Florida gubernatorial results.
- Florida GOP governorship stays a heavy favorite 81% · $222K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 81% to hold the Florida governorship, a strong lean reflecting structural state-level advantage.
- $222K in 24h volume equals 34% of all-time, signaling a meaningful fresh-money commitment rather than routine churn.
- Surge likely tied to a candidate announcement, polling release, or filing deadline drawing capital to lock in current odds.
- Contract resolves on Florida gubernatorial election outcome.
- Buyers back the GOP hold on Florida's governorship 81% · $237K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 81%, a strong favorite for the Florida governorship.
- 24h volume of $237K is 62% of all-time handle, signaling a major fresh-money event.
- End-of-August positioning likely tied to candidate filing deadlines or early polling drops.
- Resolves on 2026 Florida general election night.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/govpartyfl-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/govpartyfl-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("govpartyfl-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4HX1NKV2L1",
"slug": "govpartyfl-26",
"question": "Florida Governor winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"florida-governor",
"us-election-2026",
"gubernatorial-race",
"state-politics",
"electoral-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 97314,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "US State Governments",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.usa.gov/state-governments",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "US State Governments",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "US State Governments",
"url": "https://www.usa.gov/state-governments",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}