Will the France United Left Primary produce a winner by the settlement date? [ resolves 2026-10-11 (80D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 25 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be… | 2026-10-11 | 93.0% | $36 | $62K | C | 0x4a8be0…ae74 | ||
| Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 2.2% | — | $31K | C | 0xa477ec…5c41 | ||
| Will Lydie Massard be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.4% | $404 | $6.9K | C | 0x21b642…3af1 | ||
| Will Clémentine Autain be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French… | 2026-10-11 | 0.2% | $12 | $6.8K | C | 0x5d41eb…d6be | ||
| Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French… | 2026-10-11 | 0.2% | — | $49K | C | 0x4978aa…68ce | ||
| Will Benjamin Lucas-Lundy be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French… | 2026-10-11 | 0.1% | — | $2.8K | C | 0xa9ae53…3344 | ||
| Will any other individual be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5f8d3d…dc31 | ||
| Will Placeholder C be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbc2148…294d | ||
| Will Placeholder D be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x460a23…5a21 | ||
| Will Placeholder E be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x50a0eb…1501 | ||
| Will Placeholder F be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8c79d1…ee86 | ||
| Will Placeholder G be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x289b14…8f47 | ||
| Will Placeholder H be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc02f6a…38dd | ||
| Will Placeholder I be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8a1d74…efa0 | ||
| Will Placeholder J be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcd205e…6fa9 | ||
| Will Placeholder K be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2c739e…6f53 | ||
| Will Placeholder L be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5b6fa7…1ae7 | ||
| Will Placeholder M be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfdf82b…6c45 | ||
| Will Placeholder N be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x966abe…4ee0 | ||
| Will Placeholder O be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x278d1e…f9de | ||
| Will Placeholder P be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4ddcad…1720 | ||
| Will Placeholder Q be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x51ec41…dce5 | ||
| Will Placeholder R be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc1e353…254e | ||
| Will Placeholder S be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1f7b14…a88c | ||
| Will Placeholder T be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential… | 2026-10-11 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x41afd6…3a1b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Lydie Massard as French left nominee prices at zero 0% · $19K 24h
- Polymarket prices Massard as the joint left nominee for 2027 at 0%, the market has fully ruled this out.
- $19K in 24h is 55% of all-time volume, a sharp spike on a contract the market treats as already settled.
- Volume at zero likely reflects a definitive disqualifying event, a withdrawal, endorsement of a rival, or official announcement.
- Resolves on formal nomination; no realistic path remains per current pricing.
- Odds on Massard as French left nominee in 2027 sit at zero 0% · $12K 24h
- Polymarket prices Lydie Massard as the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential race at 0%.
- 24h volume $12K is 63% of the contract's all-time total, the market is reaching a definitive verdict.
- Zero probability reflects the crowded and more prominent French left field; Massard carries negligible public profile.
- 2027 French presidential election remains over a year away; this contract is effectively closed.
- French left primary flows defend a confirmed primary outcome at 74% 74% · $13K 24h
- Polymarket at 74%, majority of capital expects the 2026 United Left primary for 2027 French presidential race to be confirmed.
- 24h volume $13.4K is 29% of all-time; renewed attention points to a fresh organizational or political signal.
- French left coalition talks or a public announcement likely catalyzed fresh positioning in this contract.
- Resolves on whether the primary is officially convened; 26% residual reflects fragmentation risk.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/france-united-left-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/france-united-left-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("france-united-left-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WGPTXTJYH0",
"slug": "france-united-left-primary-winner",
"question": "Will the France United Left Primary produce a winner by the settlement date?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"france",
"2026",
"primary-process",
"left-coalition"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 25,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 158629,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 56,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}