Will the Republican candidate win the FL-25 House election in 2026? [ resolved 2026-11-04 ]
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0a8785…4c91 | ||
| Will A win the FL-25 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1db348…a0d3 | ||
| Will B win the FL-25 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x441fd8…4443 | ||
| Will C win the FL-25 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x24fcbe…029a | ||
| Will D win the FL-25 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x430ce0…aefa | ||
| Will E win the FL-25 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7716ab…06d8 | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-04 | 100.0% | — | $4.9K | B | 0x9da602…594d | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | $14K | B | 0x45d599…0c24 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
| NO | Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- GOP odds in FL-25 slip to 20% as fresh volume pours in 20% · $38K 24h
- At 20%, the market prices Republicans as underdogs to flip or hold FL-25.
- 57% of all-time volume arrived in 24 hours alongside the companion Democratic contract.
- FL-25 mirrors a Democrat-favored district; capital is re-rating the Republican path lower.
- Resolves on the 2026 FL-25 House general election result.
- Democrats favored at 79% to take FL-25 as volume surges 79% · $13K 24h
- At 79%, the market prices Democrats as clear but not locked-in favorites in FL-25.
- 45% of all-time volume cleared in one session alongside the Republican FL-25 contract.
- Paired with the GOP contract spike, both sides are seeing simultaneous re-pricing activity.
- Resolves on the 2026 FL-25 House general election result.
- Odds hold Republicans under 25% in FL-25 on a volume surge 19% · $29K 24h
- Republicans priced at 19% in FL-25, market reads this seat as likely Democratic.
- 51% of all-time volume cleared in one session, marking a decisive spike.
- Long-shot Republican odds with fresh volume suggest traders are testing whether the price is too low.
- Resolves on the FL-25 general election certified result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fl-25-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fl-25-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fl-25-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-HQP7KZ8L31",
"slug": "fl-25-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Republican candidate win the FL-25 House election in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"florida",
"2026",
"congressional-races"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19036,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}