Will a Republican win the FL-14 House Election in 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (103D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 53.0% | — | $13K | B | 0xd33905…8927 | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 40.0% | — | $13K | B | 0xe3d41b…b8eb | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x19b733…ba04 | ||
| Will A win the FL-14 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x3a8d80…c417 | ||
| Will B win the FL-14 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9ec35a…7c76 | ||
| Will C win the FL-14 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x900fe1…c554 | ||
| Will D win the FL-14 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xfc15ad…6c37 | ||
| Will E win the FL-14 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x677f9d…f78d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- fec.gov venue-listed
- Federal Election Commission source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Florida 14th House race fractured at dead even pricing Polymarket 51%
- The Polymarket contract on a Republican winning Florida's 14th Congressional District prices at 51%, essentially a toss-up resolving via UMA oracle.
- Forecaster upgrades toward Democrats are consistent with the near-even pricing, the market is not fading the Democratic momentum narrative in this specific race.
- Florida 14 at 51% Republican is notably lower than other Republican-held seats in the candidate list, flagging it as a genuine swing district in market pricing.
- Resolution is via UMA oracle on the November 2026 election result; no primary outcome affects this contract directly.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fl-14-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fl-14-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fl-14-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LPBNKVP3F9",
"slug": "fl-14-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will a Republican win the FL-14 House Election in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026-us-midterms",
"florida-politics",
"house-races",
"us-congress"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 25736,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}