Will the Republican candidate win the FL-10 House seat in 2026? [ resolved 2026-11-04 ]
Will the Republican Party win the FL-10 House seat?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5a556f…6d04 | ||
| Will A win the FL-10 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb9325f…d89b | ||
| Will B win the FL-10 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe5ded6…8a53 | ||
| Will C win the FL-10 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8a5d63…cfde | ||
| Will D win the FL-10 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xae4843…a35a | ||
| Will E win the FL-10 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd9cef5…b886 | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-04 | 100.0% | — | $7.6K | B | 0x92af18…3b01 | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | $7.5K | B | 0x700f05…d010 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the Republican Party win the FL-10 House seat? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| YES | Will the Democratic Party win the FL-10 House seat? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Republican FL-10 House win nears full pricing Polymarket 100%
- Polymarket prices the Republican candidate winning FL-10 at 100%, treating this seat as a certainty.
- The near-unanimous pricing is consistent with FL-10 being a safe Republican district unlikely to flip regardless of the broader wave environment.
- Contrast with the PA-12 Polymarket contract at 99% for Republicans and Delaware at-large at 1% for Democrats, showing the market drawing clear distinctions across safe seats.
- Resolution via UMA oracle on certified FL-10 election results; the 100% price leaves no practical room for a Democratic upset scenario in the market.
- Republican wins Florida House district FL-10 stays heavily favored Polymarket 94%
- Polymarket prices 94% on the Republican candidate winning the FL-10 House seat in 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Donalds vacating FL-10 for the governor's race opens the seat, yet the market treats it as a near-certain Republican hold, the seat's partisan lean is not seen as threatened.
- A companion contract (CM-EVT-2NN6LKDWW9) at 99% on the Democratic nominee for Florida's 27th congressional district being determined confirms Florida primary resolution is nearly complete on the Democratic side.
- Resolves via UMA oracle on the general election result; outcome depends on who the GOP nominates to replace Donalds in FL-10.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fl-10-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fl-10-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fl-10-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T5CGMYTX62",
"slug": "fl-10-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Republican candidate win the FL-10 House seat in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"florida",
"house-races",
"2026-midterm",
"us-congress"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15122,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}