Will the winner of the FL-09 House election be determined by November 2026? [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-03 | 99.8% | — | $7.2K | B | 0xd0f009…900f | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-03 | 0.6% | — | $10K | B | 0x2c93da…8e6f | ||
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa43446…3491 | ||
| Will A win the FL-09 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc4783f…9277 | ||
| Will B win the FL-09 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc906ee…0b1a | ||
| Will C win the FL-09 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1f98be…6a01 | ||
| Will D win the FL-09 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0347a5…c86f | ||
| Will E win the FL-09 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2cfe6b…bd19 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
recent wire items
- FL-09 Republican odds hold at 65% through a volume surge 65% · $29K 24h
- At 65%, Polymarket prices FL-09 as a likely but not certain Republican pickup or hold.
- $29K in 24h, 56% of all-time, makes this the most concentrated single-day session on the contract.
- FL-09 activity may reflect candidate development or district-level demographic data drawing fresh scrutiny.
- Resolves on the November 2026 election result.
- FL-09 Democratic House odds slip to 37% on late-session volume 37% · $25K 24h
- Polymarket marks Democratic FL-09 House win at 37%, a slim underdog stance.
- $25K in 24h equals 68% of all-time contract volume, marking a major liquidity event for a thin market.
- FL-09 is a Republican-leaning district; a 37% Democratic price reflects a competitive but uphill race.
- Resolves on FL-09 2026 House election result.
- Fresh volume returns to FL-09 Democratic odds at 40% 40% · $17K 24h
- Polymarket prices FL-09 Democratic win at 40%, closely mirroring Kalshi's 38%, confirming cross-venue consensus.
- 59% of all-time Polymarket volume on this contract landed in 24h, the sharpest single-day concentration of the two FL-09 venues.
- Tight spread between Polymarket (40%) and Kalshi (38%) leaves minimal arbitrage; both point to a Republican-leaning district.
- Resolves on FL-09 2026 House election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fl-09-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fl-09-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fl-09-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3ZLX48RMQ5",
"slug": "fl-09-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the winner of the FL-09 House election be determined by November 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-house",
"florida",
"2026",
"congressional-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 17323,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}