Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? (multi-deadline series, 2026-2028) [ resolves 2026-07 – 2028-01 ]
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Federal Reserve hikes again by Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Federal Reserve committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Fed rate hike by 2028 stays favored after jobs beat Kalshi 74%
- Kalshi prices 74% on the Fed raising interest rates at some point across its multi-deadline 2026-2028 series.
- The blowout August jobs print is consistent with the 74% pricing, but markets are not at near-certainty, suggesting inflation data still dominates the calculus.
- Federal Reserve officials cited by American Banker see the jobs report as supportive but not sufficient alone to guarantee a September hike.
- Companion rate-level ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) puts only 2% on the fed funds upper bound exceeding 4.0%, implying the hike expected is modest if it occurs.
- Fed rate hike odds hold above 50% despite mixed labor data Kalshi 64%
- Kalshi multi-deadline series prices a Fed rate hike at 64%, holding above the 50% threshold despite softer job openings data.
- Falling job openings are a mild disinflationary signal, but the market is not moving away from a hike majority, resilient hiring and low layoffs offset the headline decline.
- The labor market data alone does not resolve the rate question; the pricing reflects a balance of sticky inflation (ISM prices elevated) against modest labor softening.
- Resolution is via the Federal Reserve's actual policy decision; the multi-deadline structure means the contract covers any hike through 2028, giving it a longer runway than a single-meeting market.
- Fed rate hike consensus firms on tariff-driven inflation data Kalshi 54%
- Kalshi prices a 54% probability that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at some point in the 2026-2028 window.
- The Fed's own monetary policy report flagging 'high inflation' due to tariffs is broadly consistent with a coin-flip market on eventual hikes.
- Markets are not fully pricing hikes despite official warnings, reflecting tension between tariff-driven inflation and a weak June jobs report.
- Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decisions; any single hike across the multi-deadline series triggers resolution.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fedhike/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fedhike |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fedhike") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42",
"slug": "fedhike",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? (multi-deadline series, 2026-2028)",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"federal-reserve",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"economic-indicators",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1486699,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}