Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-09 (127D) ]
Fed rate hike in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate hike in 2026 | 2026-12-09 | 94.4% | $95K | $6.29M | A | 0x80b3af…d82b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm sources (3) · single authority
federalreserve.gov committed source Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Fed rate hike in 2026 stays heavily favored Polymarket 95%
- The Polymarket contract prices a 2026 Fed rate hike at 95%, consistent with today's confirmed quarter-point move to 3.75-4.00%.
- The hike is the Fed's first since 2023 and came despite a sustained pressure campaign from Trump administration officials demanding a cut.
- The Kalshi contract on a Fed rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year sits at just 4%, reinforcing that markets see no reversal imminent.
- The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the 4% companion Kalshi contract resolves via the Federal Reserve's own rate decision record.
- Fed rate hike in 2026 stays heavily favored Polymarket 93%
- Polymarket prices a 2026 Fed rate hike at 93%, resolving via UMA oracle.
- ABC News and AP report a near-consensus expectation for a Wednesday hike under Chair Kevin Warsh, market pricing is fully consistent with the news.
- Kalshi's multi-deadline series (CM-EVT-P1KKDFWZ42) sits at 92%, a tight cross-venue gap confirming broad market alignment on the hike.
- Kalshi's large-cut contract (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) sits at just 4% for a cut greater than 25 bps, reinforcing the direction: markets see hike, not reversal.
- Fed rate hike in 2026 stays heavily favored at 90 percent Polymarket 90%
- Polymarket puts 90% on the Federal Reserve raising its benchmark interest rate at least once in 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.
- The Reuters economist poll consensus is consistent with this pricing; the market is not pushing back against the hawkish survey.
- Economists flagging a follow-on hike beyond September are not yet fully captured here; this contract resolves on any single hike occurring.
- The Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) narrows the terminal level to 4.0-4.25%, giving the rate path more granular shape than this binary.
- Fed rate hike in 2026 stays heavily favored Polymarket 88%
- The Polymarket contract on a Fed rate hike in 2026 sits at 88%, consistent with hot August CPI data.
- August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, driven by energy costs; Wall Street reads the print as confirming a September FOMC move.
- The Motley Fool reported FOMC September hike odds at 85% from conventional sources, aligning closely with the Polymarket 88% read.
- Kalshi prices only 3% on a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year, confirming a one-directional consensus toward tightening.
- Fed rate hike in 2026 stays heavily favored Polymarket 70%
- Polymarket contract prices a 70% chance the Fed raises its benchmark rate at least once in 2026.
- News flow, oil above $100, hot PPI, and hawkish central-bank signals, is broadly consistent with that 70% pricing.
- A separate Kalshi contract puts only 5% on a rate CUT greater than 25 basis points this year, reinforcing the directional bias.
- Resolution via UMA oracle; contract settles YES if any Fed funds rate increase is announced before year-end 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fed-rate-hike-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fed-rate-hike-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-87QV1G78C4",
"slug": "fed-rate-hike-in-2026",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed",
"economic-policy",
"fed-rates",
"macro-single",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6290995,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "federalreserve.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}