Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting? [ resolves 2026-01 – 2026-06 ]
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting | 2026-01-28 | 0.5% | — | $588K | A | 0xc8929e…35a9 | ||
| Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting | 2026-03-18 | 0.1% | — | — | A | 0xe7f239…ea12 | ||
| Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting | 2026-04-29 | 2.1% | — | $543K | A | 0x626d04…74a6 | ||
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting | 2026-06-17 | 28.0% | $349 | $126K | A | 0xc60022…5e93 | ||
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting | 2026-06-17 | 22.9% | $1.1K | $48K | A | 0x409281…3025 | ||
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting | 2026-06-17 | 14.0% | $879 | $102K | A | 0xb4022c…6956 | ||
| Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting | 2026-06-17 | 7.0% | $1.6K | $90K | A | 0x025073…072e | ||
| Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting | 2026-06-17 | 1.9% | $5.4K | $465K | A | 0x4d162a…cfa4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Fomc (consensus fallback) | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-rate-cut-by-629/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fed-rate-cut-by-629.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fed-rate-cut-by-629") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6WY59L0G19",
"slug": "fed-rate-cut-by-629",
"question": "Fed rate cut by January 2026 meeting?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed",
"fed-rates",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1962527,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Fomc (consensus fallback)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}