Will the Federal Reserve make decisions regarding interest rates between April and July? [ resolved 2026-07-29 ]

Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 9 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Cut–Cut–Pause	2026-04-29	0.3%	—	$8.2K	A	`0xe1d008…e027`
Cut–Cut–Cut	2026-04-29	1.0%	—	$15K	A	`0xedfcb4…554e`
Cut–Pause–Cut	2026-04-29	0.3%	—	$6.1K	A	`0x63fa88…83bb`
Cut–Pause–Pause	2026-04-29	0.1%	—	$11K	A	`0x61133f…e134`
Pause–Cut–Pause	2026-06-17	0.9%	—	$7.3K	A	`0x67e026…71aa`
Pause–Cut–Cut	2026-06-17	0.2%	—	$4.9K	A	`0x750e64…e6e8`
Pause–Pause–Pause	2026-07-29	100.0%	$21K	$411K	A	`0x647fe8…5532`
Pause–Pause–Cut	2026-07-29	0.0%	$3.3K	$80K	A	`0xcc4d67…bdac`
Decide differently	2026-07-29	0.0%	$10K	$308K	A	`0x7618e8…d514`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 9 markets · share this text

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned

sources (4) · single authority

federalreserve.gov venue-listed
federalreserve.gov venue-listed
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm from rules text · editorial
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm from rules text · editorial

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
YES	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	polymarket	`2026-07-29`	`100%`
NO	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	polymarket	`2026-07-29`	`0%`
NO	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?	polymarket	`2026-07-29`	`0%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-07-26T00:00:00.000Z momentum-repricing
Fed action between April and July prices in heavily Polymarket 77%
- Polymarket prices a 77% probability the Fed makes a rate decision in the April-to-July window; trading volume on this contract surged 3,484% day over day.
- The volume spike, nearly 35 times normal, signals the July FOMC meeting is drawing significant fresh attention to this contract.
- At 77%, the contract is consistent with a hold-now-hike-soon narrative rather than a clean pass on the window entirely.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the April-July window closes at the end of the July 29 meeting, making this contract a near-term binary event.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-decisions-apr-jul/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fed-decisions-apr-jul`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("fed-decisions-apr-jul")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-C0ZG1HDJQ1",
  "slug": "fed-decisions-apr-jul",
  "question": "Will the Federal Reserve make decisions regarding interest rates between April and July?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "fed",
    "fed-rates",
    "fomc",
    "monetary-policy",
    "interest-rate-decisions"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 9,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 851643,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 84,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "federalreserve.gov",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "federalreserve.gov",
      "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →