Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September? [ resolves 2026-09-16 (55D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps | 2026-09-16 | 1.0% | $22K | $618K | A | 0x5e464d…6f86 | ||
| The Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps | 2026-09-16 | 1.7% | $135K | $1.24M | A | 0xac02cb…b830 | ||
| There be no change in Fed interest rates | 2026-09-16 | 39.0% | $28K | $857K | A | 0xa3b36b…ec9a | ||
| The Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps | 2026-09-16 | 60.0% | $52K | $1.02M | A | 0x876506…5d0d | ||
| The Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps | 2026-09-16 | 1.0% | $30K | $541K | A | 0x2e4b58…e13c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm sources (4) · single authority
- federalreserve.gov source of record venue-listed
- federalreserve.gov source of record venue-listed
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm from rules text · editorial
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Traders pile into a September Fed cut staying off the table 3% · $922K 24h
- At 3%, Kalshi traders treat a September 25 bps cut as nearly ruled out.
- $922K traded in 24h, 37% of all-time volume floods in on one session.
- Fresh capital likely responding to July 31 macro data or Fed communication.
- Resolves after the September 2026 FOMC meeting announcement.
- Fed hold in September stays a coin-flip bet 39% · $1.3M 24h
- 39% pricing implies markets lean against a pause, a hike or cut is seen as more likely than no action.
- $1.25M in 24h volume equals 56% of all-time, the single largest trading day this contract has seen.
- Surge arrives ahead of the September FOMC window as macro data sharpens the stakes on the Fed's next move.
- Resolves on the September 2026 FOMC decision; traders are actively repricing hold probability in real time.
- A 25 bps Fed hike in September leads the rate book 57% · $422K 24h
- 57% pricing makes a 25 bps hike the single most likely Fed outcome priced across the September contract suite.
- $422K in 24h volume represents 28% of all-time, a notable but not dominant session, consistent with incremental conviction.
- Read alongside the hold contract at 39%, the market is pricing a hiking bias with a meaningful pause tail.
- Resolves on the September 2026 FOMC announcement; the 57% level sets the current consensus benchmark.
- Odds of a deep Fed cut by September stay near zero 1% · $293K 24h
- 1% pricing means the market has virtually ruled out an emergency-scale cut at the September meeting.
- $293K in 24h volume is 30% of all-time, meaningful flow into an extreme-tail contract draws attention.
- Volume into a near-zero price typically reflects hedging or deliberate tail-risk coverage rather than directional conviction.
- Resolves on the September 2026 FOMC decision; current odds place this firmly in the tail-risk category.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-decision-in-september-762/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fed-decision-in-september-762 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fed-decision-in-september-762") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LZ9Q8BDFL0",
"slug": "fed-decision-in-september-762",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fomc",
"fed-rates",
"economic-policy",
"september-2026",
"monetary-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 4279109,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "federalreserve.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}