Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in October? [ resolved 2026-10-29 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps | 2026-10-29 | 0.0% | $145 | $100K | A | 0xa69ef4…c96f | ||
| The Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps | 2026-10-29 | 0.0% | $3.1K | $96K | A | 0x9cf563…5297 | ||
| There be no change in Fed interest rates | 2026-10-29 | 100.0% | $29 | $102K | A | 0xdf9bf2…a3e3 | ||
| The Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps | 2026-10-29 | 0.0% | $558 | $106K | A | 0x12aa13…953b | ||
| The Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps | 2026-10-29 | 0.0% | — | $41K | A | 0xde5d75…7316 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm sources (4) · single authority
federalreserve.gov committed source federalreserve.gov committed source https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm from rules text https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | polymarket | 2026-10-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | polymarket | 2026-10-28 | 0% |
| YES | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | polymarket | 2026-10-28 | 100% |
| NO | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | polymarket | 2026-10-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | polymarket | 2026-10-28 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Odds on a 50 bps Fed hike after October meeting: zero 0% · $5.7M 24h
- Polymarket prices a 50+ bps October Fed hike at 0%, a decisive policy-off signal.
- 34% of all-time volume, $5.7M, traded in 24 hours, making this one of the day's largest policy flow events.
- Fresh capital is piling in to confirm what forward markets already show: a supersized hike is off the table.
- Resolves on the Fed's official rate decision following the October 2026 meeting.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YC6V96JMH7",
"slug": "fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in October?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed",
"fomc",
"fed-rates",
"october-2026",
"monetary-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 445943,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "federalreserve.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}