Ethereal fully diluted valuation one day after launch, January 1, 2028 [ resolves 2028-01-01 (527D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $25,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 79.0% | $46 | $18K | C | 0x8965e7…2de9 | ||
| ≥ $50,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 31.0% | $254 | $8.9K | C | 0xb6e8fb…c717 | ||
| ≥ $100,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 28.0% | — | $3.9K | C | 0x8b58c6…df98 | ||
| ≥ $200,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 16.0% | — | $229 | C | 0x8aa2e5…fdba | ||
| ≥ $300,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $717 | C | 0x6b9fee…7224 | ||
| ≥ $400,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $47 | C | 0xcfc588…7853 | ||
| ≥ $500,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $5.4K | C | 0xa16417…4712 | ||
| ≥ $600,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $40 | C | 0x22781a…ef81 | ||
| ≥ $800,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $600 | C | 0xb83b39…4d1c | ||
| ≥ $1,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $341 | C | 0x72863a…3e0f | ||
| ≥ $2,000,000,000 | 2028-01-01 | 4.0% | $10 | $2.6K | C | 0xdb949c…08d8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ethereal's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.
The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://x.com/etherealdex sources (2)
- x.com venue-listed
- Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ethereal-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-774/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ethereal-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-774 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ethereal-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-774") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-WZJW8DTLC4",
"slug": "ethereal-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-774",
"question": "Ethereal fully diluted valuation one day after launch, January 1, 2028",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"token-launch",
"fdv-valuation",
"ethereal",
"2028"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 40595,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/etherealdex",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Ethereal (https://x.com/etherealdex)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}