Will Ethereum's market capitalization exceed Bitcoin's market capitalization by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Ethereum flipped in 2026?

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Ethereum flipped in 2026	2027-01-01	57.0%		$735	$499K		C	`0xcbca49…4e32`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	Coingecko (consensus fallback)	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 1 market · share this text

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) is not the second or first largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at any point between January 1, and December 31, 2026 ET, according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be CoinGecko. If CoinGecko becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen. If there is ambiguity, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

platform source field polymarket.resolution_source → "Coingecko (consensus fallback)"

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/eth-flipped-in-2026/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/eth-flipped-in-2026.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("eth-flipped-in-2026")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-FHL83M8ZC5",
  "slug": "eth-flipped-in-2026",
  "question": "Will Ethereum's market capitalization exceed Bitcoin's market capitalization by the end of 2026?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "ethereum",
    "crypto",
    "market-cap-flip",
    "bitcoin-comparison",
    "altseason",
    "2027"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 498860,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 50,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Coingecko (consensus fallback)",
  "resolution_source_url": null,
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →