Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? [ resolves 2026-06-05 (2D) ]
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 26 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 39.0% | $63K | $109K | B | 0x12d0a1…65cf | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 29.0% | $59K | $109K | B | 0x0db45b…7852 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 16.9% | $89K | $151K | B | 0x544f88…f8b2 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 12.0% | $53K | $95K | B | 0x55fa57…d9d4 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 3.4% | $44K | $84K | B | 0x582e8c…d66b | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 1.5% | $118K | $175K | B | 0x0b9a0b…be5d | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 1.3% | $41K | $80K | B | 0xc2449c…06c1 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.5% | $64K | $128K | B | 0xa554cb…f2bc | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | — | $82K | B | 0x734075…2f98 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | — | $139K | B | 0x0eefba…15cc | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $51K | $162K | B | 0x9568ea…be99 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $76K | $145K | B | 0xf2e364…d9ab | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $57K | $163K | B | 0xa18c3d…1c90 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $2.0K | $110K | B | 0xec5c89…a7bd | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $2.0K | $80K | B | 0x0fc704…756c | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $2.0K | $38K | B | 0x3f08e7…fcb1 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $2.0K | $26K | B | 0x36d44e…8fdd | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $28K | B | 0xa2f304…a894 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $32K | B | 0xb49027…a1b9 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $108K | B | 0xaab42b…2930 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $4.0K | $317K | B | 0x562501…5a9c | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | — | $58K | B | 0x8c31af…f40a | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | — | $54K | B | 0x5138c9…6954 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $98K | $213K | B | 0xac5600…8012 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $60K | $156K | B | 0x73f875…bcf9 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026 | 2026-06-05 | 0.1% | $8.0K | $82K | B | 0xc1b7d9…dd92 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 29 12:00 PM ET to June 5, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-29-june-5/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-may-29-june-5.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-may-29-june-5") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-H8KG2NJPG7",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-may-29-june-5",
"question": "Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elon-musk",
"twitter-activity",
"pop-culture",
"social-media",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 26,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2925701,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}