Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-16 ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 26 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200-219 | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | $31K | $67K | B | 0x1bddd2…a912 | ||
| 0-19 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $60K | B | 0x76df2d…ad48 | ||
| 20-39 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $37K | B | 0x16df47…508a | ||
| 40-59 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $93K | B | 0x2bfdba…ef27 | ||
| 60-79 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $142K | B | 0x4cea45…c0c7 | ||
| 80-99 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $161K | B | 0x6cece5…af8e | ||
| 100-119 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $5.3K | $117K | B | 0x077feb…91bd | ||
| 160-179 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $39K | $68K | B | 0x51f2c9…d046 | ||
| 180-199 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $33K | $63K | B | 0xe9dce3…6c32 | ||
| 240-259 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $24K | $50K | B | 0x8fb1eb…0339 | ||
| 120-139 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $56K | $115K | B | 0xa23fd0…08b9 | ||
| 140-159 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $35K | $71K | B | 0xc2554d…aa09 | ||
| 280-299 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $21K | $49K | B | 0x68c886…cd15 | ||
| 380-399 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $38K | $112K | B | 0x7f8709…2977 | ||
| 400-419 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $22K | $95K | B | 0x9a74a3…797c | ||
| 420-439 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $5.3K | $74K | B | 0xc36c43…27b6 | ||
| 440-459 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $1.0K | $58K | B | 0x17dd31…bc5f | ||
| 220-239 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $29K | $60K | B | 0xc3eb9e…9a2c | ||
| 260-279 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $17K | $46K | B | 0x5bac3e…b1ff | ||
| 300-319 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $25K | $55K | B | 0xe71f42…afdb | ||
| 320-339 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $21K | $67K | B | 0x3924b6…b615 | ||
| 340-359 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $14K | $50K | B | 0xd56ab4…f378 | ||
| 360-379 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $35K | $65K | B | 0x309216…177f | ||
| 460-479 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $1.0K | $137K | B | 0x3be356…f875 | ||
| 480-499 | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $1.0K | $87K | B | 0x4eea43…025d | ||
| 500+ | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $1.0K | $160K | B | 0x9104d5…723e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://x.com/elonmusk | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 9 12:00 PM ET to June 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk" sources (5) · stated precedence rule
- https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed
- x.com venue-listed
- xtracker.polymarket.com venue-listed
- https://xtracker.polymarket.com source of record from rules text · editorial
- X itself from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 100% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-14 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-10 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (26 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-9-june-16/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-9-june-16 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-june-9-june-16") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8G1WQ42GN2",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-june-9-june-16",
"question": "Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elon-musk",
"twitter-activity",
"social-media",
"pop-culture",
"quantified-behavior"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 26,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2158056,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "X itself",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}