Will Elon Musk tweet more than X times between June 4 and June 6, 2026? [ resolves 2026-06-06 (3D) ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 2026-06-06 | 58.0% | $4.0K | $4.5K | B | 0x95a1a3…b7bb | ||
| ≤ 40 | 2026-06-06 | 16.0% | $3.6K | $4.0K | B | 0x688ea9…ef46 | ||
| 65 | 2026-06-06 | 26.0% | $3.4K | $3.8K | B | 0x0b3f0b…55b2 | ||
| 90 | 2026-06-06 | 3.8% | $2.5K | $3.0K | B | 0x2ecde4…379b | ||
| 115 | 2026-06-06 | 1.1% | $2.5K | $3.1K | B | 0x57f0ba…7d8b | ||
| 140 | 2026-06-06 | 0.3% | $5.6K | $7.0K | B | 0x6d4118…d63f | ||
| 165 | 2026-06-06 | 0.4% | $9.4K | $11K | B | 0xc2f5f4…f4f2 | ||
| 190 | 2026-06-06 | 0.1% | $11K | $13K | B | 0x6893c2…e545 | ||
| 215 | 2026-06-06 | 0.1% | $10K | $12K | B | 0xca7c24…e4c2 | ||
| ≥ 240 | 2026-06-06 | 0.1% | $5.2K | $7.7K | B | 0xcf082b…f57e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 4 12:00 PM ET to June 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-4-june-6/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-4-june-6.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-june-4-june-6") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZHF6THBKX9",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-june-4-june-6",
"question": "Will Elon Musk tweet more than X times between June 4 and June 6, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"pop-culture",
"politics",
"elon-musk",
"twitter-activity",
"2026",
"social-media"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 69350,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}