Will Elon Musk post more than X tweets between June 13 and June 15, 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-15 ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 2026-06-15 | 100.0% | $534 | $544 | B | 0x5e93c9…a1c3 | ||
| <40 | 2026-06-15 | 0.0% | $1.2K | $1.3K | B | 0x0ef39c…570b | ||
| 65-89 | 2026-06-15 | 0.0% | $1.3K | $1.3K | B | 0x9af611…7ee0 | ||
| 90-114 | 2026-06-15 | 0.0% | $1.7K | $1.7K | B | 0x15bd21…2203 | ||
| 115-139 | 2026-06-15 | 0.0% | $321 | $421 | B | 0xaf4aa6…27af | ||
| 140-164 | 2026-06-15 | 0.0% | $2.4K | $2.5K | B | 0xd9faf1…7f61 | ||
| 165-189 | 2026-06-15 | 0.0% | $6.0K | $6.1K | B | 0x216540…9af7 | ||
| 190-214 | 2026-06-15 | 0.0% | $11K | $11K | B | 0x541bfe…5010 | ||
| 215-239 | 2026-06-15 | 0.0% | $8.4K | $8.6K | B | 0x8d20b3…6221 | ||
| 240+ | 2026-06-15 | 0.0% | $1.2K | $5.8K | B | 0xb9127c…4639 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://x.com/elonmusk | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 13 12:00 PM ET to June 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk" sources (5) · stated precedence rule
- https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed
- x.com venue-listed
- xtracker.polymarket.com venue-listed
- https://xtracker.polymarket.com source of record from rules text · editorial
- X itself from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 100% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (10 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-june-15/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-june-15 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-june-15") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VNBRZMJV55",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-june-13-june-15",
"question": "Will Elon Musk post more than X tweets between June 13 and June 15, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elon-musk",
"social-media-activity",
"twitter-x",
"pop-culture",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 39327,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "X itself",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}