CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,330 EVENTS / ~30,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-19 ]

polymarket: [B] reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 26 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
180-199 2026-06-19 100.0%
$4.0K $7.9K
B 0x5ff528…78f2
60-79 2026-06-19 0.0%
$45K
B 0xd35cca…d61f
100-119 2026-06-19 0.0%
$11K $18K
B 0x30f5dc…65c0
120-139 2026-06-19 0.0%
$5.4K $9.3K
B 0xb9b81c…448c
160-179 2026-06-19 0.0%
$4.2K $7.7K
B 0xd72599…d136
220-239 2026-06-19 0.0%
$5.0K $10K
B 0x6622e5…b0ad
240-259 2026-06-19 0.0%
$4.5K $6.5K
B 0xd8c84f…acdc
380-399 2026-06-19 0.0%
$5.7K $14K
B 0xd77050…6d7d
400-419 2026-06-19 0.0%
$7.5K $15K
B 0x51ee52…f593
480-499 2026-06-19 0.0%
$66K $97K
B 0x5ebf25…6aa4
500+ 2026-06-19 0.0%
$83K $216K
B 0xa92ba3…3539
80-99 2026-06-19 0.0%
$13K $50K
B 0x62934a…c6d9
280-299 2026-06-19 0.0%
$5.1K $7.9K
B 0x3c2301…9fa6
340-359 2026-06-19 0.0%
$6.6K $12K
B 0x8eb728…573e
0-19 2026-06-19 0.0%
$6.0K $21K
B 0x869732…1e85
20-39 2026-06-19 0.0%
$16K
B 0x61561c…a092
40-59 2026-06-19 0.0%
$1.0K $5.6K
B 0x6bfa55…1535
140-159 2026-06-19 0.0%
$8.8K $12K
B 0x6237ee…abaf
200-219 2026-06-19 0.0%
$6.0K $12K
B 0xe6eda6…6964
260-279 2026-06-19 0.0%
$4.7K $7.3K
B 0x98028d…b532
300-319 2026-06-19 0.0%
$6.2K $9.4K
B 0xfd4279…a744
320-339 2026-06-19 0.0%
$5.4K $11K
B 0xd79015…3006
360-379 2026-06-19 0.0%
$7.5K $12K
B 0xae4381…b3db
420-439 2026-06-19 0.0%
$10K $19K
B 0xa48448…0f6e
440-459 2026-06-19 0.0%
$12K $21K
B 0xed0d76…0bc5
460-479 2026-06-19 0.0%
$11K $63K
B 0x57e488…9519
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers https://x.com/elonmusk not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 26 markets · share this text
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 12 12:00 PM ET to June 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk"
sources (5) · stated precedence rule
  • https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed
  • x.com venue-listed
  • xtracker.polymarket.com venue-listed
  • https://xtracker.polymarket.com source of record from rules text · editorial
  • X itself from rules text · editorial
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 100%
NO Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-19 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-18 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-17 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-17 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-16 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-16 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-15 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-15 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? polymarket 2026-06-14 0%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (26 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-12-june-19/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-12-june-19
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-june-12-june-19")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-9RP547RD48",
  "slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-june-12-june-19",
  "question": "Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elon-musk",
    "twitter-activity",
    "social-media",
    "quantified-behavior",
    "pop-culture"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 26,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 726148,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 64,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "x.com",
      "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
      "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "X itself",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →