Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-19 ]
polymarket: [B] reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 26 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 180-199 | 2026-06-19 | 100.0% | $4.0K | $7.9K | B | 0x5ff528…78f2 | ||
| 60-79 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | — | $45K | B | 0xd35cca…d61f | ||
| 100-119 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $11K | $18K | B | 0x30f5dc…65c0 | ||
| 120-139 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $5.4K | $9.3K | B | 0xb9b81c…448c | ||
| 160-179 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $4.2K | $7.7K | B | 0xd72599…d136 | ||
| 220-239 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $5.0K | $10K | B | 0x6622e5…b0ad | ||
| 240-259 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $4.5K | $6.5K | B | 0xd8c84f…acdc | ||
| 380-399 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $5.7K | $14K | B | 0xd77050…6d7d | ||
| 400-419 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $7.5K | $15K | B | 0x51ee52…f593 | ||
| 480-499 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $66K | $97K | B | 0x5ebf25…6aa4 | ||
| 500+ | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $83K | $216K | B | 0xa92ba3…3539 | ||
| 80-99 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $13K | $50K | B | 0x62934a…c6d9 | ||
| 280-299 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $5.1K | $7.9K | B | 0x3c2301…9fa6 | ||
| 340-359 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $6.6K | $12K | B | 0x8eb728…573e | ||
| 0-19 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $6.0K | $21K | B | 0x869732…1e85 | ||
| 20-39 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | — | $16K | B | 0x61561c…a092 | ||
| 40-59 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $1.0K | $5.6K | B | 0x6bfa55…1535 | ||
| 140-159 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $8.8K | $12K | B | 0x6237ee…abaf | ||
| 200-219 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $6.0K | $12K | B | 0xe6eda6…6964 | ||
| 260-279 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $4.7K | $7.3K | B | 0x98028d…b532 | ||
| 300-319 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $6.2K | $9.4K | B | 0xfd4279…a744 | ||
| 320-339 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $5.4K | $11K | B | 0xd79015…3006 | ||
| 360-379 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $7.5K | $12K | B | 0xae4381…b3db | ||
| 420-439 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $10K | $19K | B | 0xa48448…0f6e | ||
| 440-459 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $12K | $21K | B | 0xed0d76…0bc5 | ||
| 460-479 | 2026-06-19 | 0.0% | $11K | $63K | B | 0x57e488…9519 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://x.com/elonmusk | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 12 12:00 PM ET to June 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk" sources (5) · stated precedence rule
- https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed
- x.com venue-listed
- xtracker.polymarket.com venue-listed
- https://xtracker.polymarket.com source of record from rules text · editorial
- X itself from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 100% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-19 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-18 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-17 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-15 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-14 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (26 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-12-june-19/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-12-june-19 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-june-12-june-19") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9RP547RD48",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-june-12-june-19",
"question": "Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elon-musk",
"twitter-activity",
"social-media",
"quantified-behavior",
"pop-culture"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 26,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 726148,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 64,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "X itself",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}