Will Elon Musk post more than a specified number of tweets between June 11 and June 13, 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-13 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 2026-06-13 | 100.0% | $63K | $69K | C | 0x06f0d5…efcb | ||
| <40 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $71K | $103K | C | 0xf92cb2…c301 | ||
| 65-89 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $27K | $37K | C | 0x1f734d…cee6 | ||
| 90-114 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $46K | $64K | C | 0x1c1640…45f8 | ||
| 115-139 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $55K | $75K | C | 0x65ec66…73bf | ||
| 140-164 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $37K | $62K | C | 0xa8126d…7947 | ||
| 165-189 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $24K | $54K | C | 0xfba5bd…84f5 | ||
| 190-214 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $6.9K | $28K | C | 0x5353a0…610a | ||
| 215-239 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $22 | $16K | C | 0x597c82…7dac | ||
| 240+ | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $16 | $26K | C | 0x57ac1c…e65a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://x.com/elonmusk | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 11 12:00 PM ET to June 13, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk" sources (5) · stated precedence rule
- https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed
- x.com venue-listed
- xtracker.polymarket.com venue-listed
- https://xtracker.polymarket.com source of record from rules text · editorial
- X itself from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 100% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (10 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-11-june-13/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-june-11-june-13 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-june-11-june-13") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LFT3PFPYW0",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-june-11-june-13",
"question": "Will Elon Musk post more than a specified number of tweets between June 11 and June 13, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"pop-culture",
"politics",
"elon-musk",
"twitter-activity",
"social-media",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 535321,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "X itself",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}