CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,330 EVENTS / ~30,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-01 (9D) ]

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 51 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
880-919 2026-08-01 100.0%
$432 $34K
C 0x2df433…c9e4
0-19 2026-08-01 0.0%
$53K
C 0x8d303a…4af8
20-39 2026-08-01 0.0%
$6.2K
C 0x8cd28d…0f0a
40-59 2026-08-01 0.0%
$384
C 0xd2b298…5e70
60-79 2026-08-01 0.0%
$5.6K
C 0xc61dae…e051
80-99 2026-08-01 0.0%
$2.8K
C 0xbd7b7f…12a8
100-119 2026-08-01 0.0%
$3.3K
C 0x55683a…391e
120-139 2026-08-01 0.0%
$2.8K
C 0xda3192…4aff
140-159 2026-08-01 0.0%
$2.8K
C 0x6b7b36…38f9
160-179 2026-08-01 0.0%
$2.5K
C 0x8d389f…1856
180-199 2026-08-01 0.0%
$3.9K
C 0x7ab527…e191
200-219 2026-08-01 0.0%
$4.8K
C 0x4a951a…760c
220-239 2026-08-01 0.0%
$5.2K
C 0xf8c812…0bb3
240-259 2026-08-01 0.0%
$5.8K
C 0x6ab02a…0595
260-279 2026-08-01 0.0%
$19K
C 0x32ba02…cddb
280-299 2026-08-01 0.0%
$21K
C 0xa7f850…e6f0
300-319 2026-08-01 0.0%
$20K
C 0xaa215c…7a43
320-339 2026-08-01 0.0%
$11K
C 0x370c60…1ec3
340-359 2026-08-01 0.0%
$11K
C 0xad5ad5…ad15
360-379 2026-08-01 0.0%
$17K
C 0xe0feba…b4be
380-399 2026-08-01 0.0%
$18K
C 0x4ba746…3ae1
400-419 2026-08-01 0.0%
$11K
C 0xef57a4…91ec
420-439 2026-08-01 0.0%
$11K
C 0x22330e…9e29
440-459 2026-08-01 0.0%
$18K
C 0x662fca…b06a
460-479 2026-08-01 0.0%
$22K
C 0xb34e61…1a57
480-499 2026-08-01 0.0%
$28K
C 0xb3ae9c…8ea8
500-519 2026-08-01 0.0%
$20K
C 0x0e418b…feb0
520-539 2026-08-01 0.0%
$13K
C 0xaa002e…5201
540-559 2026-08-01 0.0%
$18K
C 0xccca8e…75cb
560-579 2026-08-01 0.0%
$17K
C 0xc022c4…eb1c
580-599 2026-08-01 0.0%
$25 $28K
C 0x8ba64f…69cc
600-639 2026-08-01 0.0%
$448 $26K
C 0xc2eeb2…5a19
640-679 2026-08-01 0.0%
$2.3K $27K
C 0x976391…0bd8
680-719 2026-08-01 0.0%
$1.8K $22K
C 0x92745a…87c4
720-759 2026-08-01 0.0%
$519 $20K
C 0xaf74c5…5b6d
760-799 2026-08-01 0.0%
$236 $24K
C 0x5d535b…d382
800-839 2026-08-01 0.0%
$733 $30K
C 0xc3bf74…63dd
840-879 2026-08-01 0.0%
$630 $30K
C 0x340198…7700
920-959 2026-08-01 0.0%
$1.0K $36K
C 0x11f690…9597
960-999 2026-08-01 0.0%
$1.3K $37K
C 0x4126bb…e200
1000-1039 2026-08-01 0.0%
$55 $23K
C 0xab767c…5ca4
1040-1079 2026-08-01 0.0%
$224 $26K
C 0x5462f4…a69f
1080-1119 2026-08-01 0.0%
$19K
C 0xc70fef…6060
1120-1159 2026-08-01 0.0%
$17K
C 0x50ef2d…2223
1160-1199 2026-08-01 0.0%
$13K
C 0x9d6d79…f872
1200-1239 2026-08-01 0.0%
$15K
C 0xf425d3…408a
1240-1279 2026-08-01 0.0%
$12K
C 0xdb91c4…ae35
1280-1319 2026-08-01 0.0%
$17K
C 0x6beb78…5a62
1320-1359 2026-08-01 0.0%
$18K
C 0x332ac5…8193
1360-1399 2026-08-01 0.0%
$19K
C 0xa71f8c…01e3
1400+ 2026-08-01 0.0%
$32K
C 0x13f69a…5633
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers https://x.com/elonmusk not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 51 markets · share this text
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of July 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk"
sources (5) · stated precedence rule
  • https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed
  • x.com venue-listed
  • xtracker.polymarket.com source of record venue-listed
  • https://xtracker.polymarket.com from rules text · editorial
  • X itself from rules text · editorial
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 100%
NO Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in July 2026? polymarket 2026-08-01 0%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (51 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-5HV3KF4YB2",
  "slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026",
  "question": "Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elon-musk",
    "twitter-activity",
    "pop-culture",
    "2026",
    "social-media"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 51,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 900844,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 60,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "x.com",
      "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
      "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "X itself",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →