Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-01 (59D) ]
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 51 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 7.9% | — | $842 | B | 0x5d535b…d382 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 7.4% | — | $625 | B | 0x11f690…9597 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 7.3% | $20 | $3.4K | B | 0xc3bf74…63dd | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 7.0% | $181 | $1.8K | B | 0x13f69a…5633 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 6.9% | $74 | $1.4K | B | 0x340198…7700 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 5.6% | $148 | $1.2K | B | 0xaf74c5…5b6d | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 680-719 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 5.5% | $6 | $1.6K | B | 0x92745a…87c4 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 5.4% | $42 | $1.0K | B | 0x2df433…c9e4 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 5.4% | $75 | $863 | B | 0x4126bb…e200 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 4.4% | $23 | $744 | B | 0x5462f4…a69f | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 4.0% | $30 | $748 | B | 0xab767c…5ca4 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 600-639 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 4.0% | $498 | $1.5K | B | 0xc2eeb2…5a19 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 3.8% | $94 | $825 | B | 0xc70fef…6060 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 2.6% | $130 | $1.0K | B | 0x50ef2d…2223 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 2.4% | $77 | $1.1K | B | 0x8ba64f…69cc | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 2.0% | $168 | $1.6K | B | 0xf425d3…408a | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 1.8% | $1.1K | $3.5K | B | 0x976391…0bd8 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 1.7% | — | $851 | B | 0xdb91c4…ae35 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 1.5% | $25 | $1.2K | B | 0xccca8e…75cb | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 1.4% | $121 | $915 | B | 0x9d6d79…f872 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 1.4% | — | $1.8K | B | 0x6beb78…5a62 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 1.2% | $838 | $2.0K | B | 0xc022c4…eb1c | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 1.0% | $145 | $1.1K | B | 0x332ac5…8193 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.9% | — | $1.2K | B | 0xaa002e…5201 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.8% | $145 | $921 | B | 0xa71f8c…01e3 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.5% | — | $730 | B | 0xb34e61…1a57 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.5% | — | $1.7K | B | 0xb3ae9c…8ea8 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.5% | $3.7K | $6.4K | B | 0x662fca…b06a | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.5% | — | $941 | B | 0x0e418b…feb0 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.3% | $19 | $1.9K | B | 0x22330e…9e29 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.2% | — | $6.2K | B | 0xef57a4…91ec | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.2% | — | $9.9K | B | 0x4ba746…3ae1 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $4.9K | B | 0x8cd28d…0f0a | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $280 | B | 0xd2b298…5e70 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $15K | B | 0x8d303a…4af8 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $2.3K | B | 0x55683a…391e | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $2.4K | B | 0xda3192…4aff | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $1.4K | B | 0x6b7b36…38f9 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $1.3K | B | 0x8d389f…1856 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $2.0K | B | 0x7ab527…e191 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $2.3K | B | 0x4a951a…760c | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $3.7K | B | 0xf8c812…0bb3 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $3.5K | B | 0xc61dae…e051 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $1.4K | B | 0xbd7b7f…12a8 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $5.7K | B | 0x6ab02a…0595 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $5.6K | B | 0x32ba02…cddb | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $11K | B | 0xa7f850…e6f0 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | $30 | $3.0K | B | 0x370c60…1ec3 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $2.8K | B | 0xad5ad5…ad15 | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $7.6K | B | 0xe0feba…b4be | ||
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in July 2026 | 2026-08-01 | 0.1% | — | $8.6K | B | 0xaa215c…7a43 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of July 2026.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5HV3KF4YB2",
"slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-july-2026",
"question": "Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"pop-culture",
"elon-musk",
"social-media",
"twitter-activity",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 51,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 146152,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}