CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will Elon Musk post more than X tweets between August 7 and August 14, 2026? [ resolved 2026-08-14 ]

polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 26 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
180-199 2026-08-14 100.0%
$385 $385
C 0xee3b73…bf14
0-19 2026-08-14 0.0%
$4.6K $4.6K
C 0xa7deae…0f8d
20-39 2026-08-14 0.0%
$2.2K $2.2K
C 0x38f0d6…dab4
40-59 2026-08-14 0.0%
$2.2K $2.2K
C 0x3dde8c…9d30
60-79 2026-08-14 0.0%
$1.4K $1.4K
C 0xa94ae5…18ca
80-99 2026-08-14 0.0%
$369 $369
C 0x490dca…8b55
100-119 2026-08-14 0.0%
$586 $586
C 0x17bd73…2c44
120-139 2026-08-14 0.0%
$692 $692
C 0xf997fa…25b4
140-159 2026-08-14 0.0%
$491 $491
C 0x507adf…6ba9
160-179 2026-08-14 0.0%
$429 $429
C 0xb913e9…ea19
200-219 2026-08-14 0.0%
$591 $591
C 0x8f6f79…273e
220-239 2026-08-14 0.0%
$398 $398
C 0xac5b17…bbeb
240-259 2026-08-14 0.0%
$526 $526
C 0xfd8c1c…865e
260-279 2026-08-14 0.0%
$245 $245
C 0xcb35c5…4f3f
280-299 2026-08-14 0.0%
$288 $288
C 0x201d8d…09a2
300-319 2026-08-14 0.0%
$596 $596
C 0xa1fd87…cb2c
320-339 2026-08-14 0.0%
$606 $606
C 0x410e20…7486
340-359 2026-08-14 0.0%
$317 $317
C 0xd25f61…13bf
360-379 2026-08-14 0.0%
$22 $22
C 0x0346b1…d123
380-399 2026-08-14 0.0%
$122 $122
C 0x0ad78a…e087
400-419 2026-08-14 0.0%
$22 $22
C 0xc88caa…d07c
420-439 2026-08-14 0.0%
$672 $672
C 0xeb0e57…02ff
440-459 2026-08-14 0.0%
$396 $396
C 0x930c4f…f13a
460-479 2026-08-14 0.0%
$163 $163
C 0xcb0f7d…1a6c
480-499 2026-08-14 0.0%
$283 $283
C 0xee2dac…28be
500+ 2026-08-14 0.0%
$512 $512
C 0xf18b0b…2f02
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
polymarket Whitelisted Proposers https://x.com/elonmusk not provided Optimistic Oracle (UMA) Other
verbatim rules
polymarket 26 markets · share this text
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
platform source field polymarket.description → "https://x.com/elonmusk"
sources (5) · stated precedence rule
https://x.com/elonmusk venue-listed x.com venue-listed xtracker.polymarket.com committed source https://xtracker.polymarket.com from rules text X itself from rules text
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
YES Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 100%
NO Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-14 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-13 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-12 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-12 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-11 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-09 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-08 0%
NO Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? polymarket 2026-08-08 0%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (26 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-7-august-14/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/elon-musk-of-tweets-august-7-august-14
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("elon-musk-of-tweets-august-7-august-14")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-MTM0KM4MM1",
  "slug": "elon-musk-of-tweets-august-7-august-14",
  "question": "Will Elon Musk post more than X tweets between August 7 and August 14, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elon-musk",
    "twitter-activity",
    "social-media",
    "pop-culture",
    "2026"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 26,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 19111,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 60,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "https://x.com/elonmusk",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "x.com",
      "url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "xtracker.polymarket.com",
      "url": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "https://xtracker.polymarket.com",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    {
      "name": "X itself",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →