Will the European Central Bank cut interest rates in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
ECB rate cut in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECB rate cut in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 1.1% | — | $31K | A | 0x7afb09…d286 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html sources (3) · single authority
ecb.europa.eu committed source European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html) from rules text consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- ECB rate cut in 2026 remains a long shot at 5 percent Polymarket 5%
- Polymarket puts only 5% odds on the European Central Bank cutting interest rates at any point in 2026.
- The story expects the ECB to hold at its upcoming meeting, and the Polymarket contract prices any 2026 cut as a tail scenario for the full year.
- With the Fed also on hold at 4.0-4.25% per Kalshi pricing, both major central banks are seen as stuck in their current stances through year-end.
- Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle on an official ECB rate announcement; the contract covers any cut at any remaining 2026 meeting, not just the next one.
- ECB rate cut in 2026 stays a long shot on Polymarket Polymarket 5%
- Polymarket puts only 5% on the ECB cutting interest rates at any point in 2026.
- News flow uniformly expects the ECB to hold this week, and the Polymarket contract is firmly aligned with that consensus at a 95% implied probability of no cut all year.
- The near-zero probability leaves almost no room for a dovish surprise from the ECB through year-end 2026.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; any ECB rate cut announcement in 2026 would trigger resolution.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ecb-rate-cut-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ecb-rate-cut-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ecb-rate-cut-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JDWKB50KQ6",
"slug": "ecb-rate-cut-in-2026",
"question": "Will the European Central Bank cut interest rates in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"economic-policy",
"central-banking",
"ecb",
"monetary-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 30655,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ecb.europa.eu",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ecb.europa.eu",
"url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}