Will the ECB interest rates change by July 2026? [ resolved 2026-07-23 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A 50+ bps decrease | 2026-07-23 | 0.0% | $1.6K | $15K | A | 0x60b574…93d2 | ||
| A 25 bps decrease | 2026-07-23 | 0.0% | $1.4K | $15K | A | 0xca7445…0660 | ||
| No change | 2026-07-23 | 100.0% | $1.5K | $19K | A | 0x13ca23…8e71 | ||
| A 25 bps increase | 2026-07-23 | 0.0% | $3.9K | $21K | A | 0x9b319f…4cde | ||
| A 50+ bps increase | 2026-07-23 | 0.0% | $4.5K | $23K | A | 0x62fd55…b1df |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html sources (3) · single authority
- ecb.europa.eu venue-listed
- European Central Bank source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? | polymarket | 2026-07-23 | 100% |
| NO | Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? | polymarket | 2026-07-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? | polymarket | 2026-07-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? | polymarket | 2026-07-23 | 0% |
| NO | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? | polymarket | 2026-07-23 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- ECB July hold priced near certainty at 98% 98% · $21K 24h
- 98% price signals near-unanimous market expectation of an ECB hold at the July 2026 meeting.
- 24h volume $21K is 28% of all-time, suggesting late-stage positioning as the meeting approaches.
- Volume at 98% likely reflects arbitrage close-out or confirmation-seeking after ECB communication.
- Resolves at the ECB July 2026 policy announcement.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ecb-interest-rates-july-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ecb-interest-rates-july-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ecb-interest-rates-july-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RPR6R3R686",
"slug": "ecb-interest-rates-july-2026",
"question": "Will the ECB interest rates change by July 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"ecb-rates",
"monetary-policy",
"central-banking",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 92354,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "European Central Bank",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ecb.europa.eu",
"url": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "European Central Bank",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}