Will durable goods orders increase month-over-month in May 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-25 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ -4% | 2026-06-25 | 100.0% | $31 | $3.3K | A | 0xa24120…07ff | ||
| Between -2% and 0% | 2026-06-25 | 0.0% | $25 | $1.6K | A | 0xada45e…2acd | ||
| Between 2% and 4% | 2026-06-25 | 0.0% | $102 | $14K | A | 0x82aecb…54da | ||
| Between 6% and 8% | 2026-06-25 | 0.0% | — | $3.0K | A | 0x9ae1f2…0b4d | ||
| Between -4% and -2% | 2026-06-25 | 0.0% | $324 | $4.6K | A | 0x53e896…a401 | ||
| Between 0% and 2% | 2026-06-25 | 0.0% | $100 | $7.5K | A | 0x15eb5d…04fd | ||
| Between 4% and 6% | 2026-06-25 | 0.0% | $38 | $8.2K | A | 0x8aaec4…44da | ||
| ≥ 8% | 2026-06-25 | 0.0% | — | $2.2K | A | 0x9e7b8c…c2f1 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html sources (4) · single authority
- census.gov venue-listed
- census.gov venue-listed
- U.S. Census Bureau source of record from rules text · editorial
- Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? | polymarket | 2026-06-25 | 100% |
| NO | Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 4% and 6% in May? | polymarket | 2026-06-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? | polymarket | 2026-06-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 6% and 8% in May? | polymarket | 2026-06-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May? | polymarket | 2026-06-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May? | polymarket | 2026-06-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May? | polymarket | 2026-06-25 | 0% |
| NO | Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be at least 8% in May? | polymarket | 2026-06-25 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/durable-goods-orders-mom-may-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/durable-goods-orders-mom-may-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("durable-goods-orders-mom-may-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6HB0VGQQH0",
"slug": "durable-goods-orders-mom-may-2026",
"question": "Will durable goods orders increase month-over-month in May 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"durable-goods-orders",
"economic-data",
"us-manufacturing",
"month-over-month",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 44679,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Census Bureau",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "census.gov",
"url": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "census.gov",
"url": "https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "U.S. Census Bureau",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}