Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2026-12 ]
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31 | 2026-05-31 | 0.1% | — | $449K | B | 0xad11c1…47c9 | ||
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 4.4% | $7.4K | $84K | B | 0x806fb0…f879 | ||
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30 | 2026-09-30 | 20.0% | $12K | $112K | B | 0x6a1896…af3e | ||
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 24.0% | $11K | $77K | B | 0x8a5c0b…f821 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/crude-oil-all-time-high-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/crude-oil-all-time-high-by.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("crude-oil-all-time-high-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2179JPSW74",
"slug": "crude-oil-all-time-high-by",
"question": "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"commodities",
"energy-prices",
"oil-markets",
"2026",
"price-records"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 720810,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_illustrative"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}