Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (181D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · stated precedence rule
Library of Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Democrats winning the House stays heavily favored at 85 percent Kalshi 85%
- Kalshi puts 85% on the Democratic Party winning the US House in the 2026 midterm election, resolving via Library of Congress.
- Democrat planning for post-majority oversight tools is consistent with a market that already strongly prices in a Democratic House takeover.
- Companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) prices Republicans holding at least one chamber at 50%, pointing to a split-Congress scenario as the modal outcome.
- The gap between 85% Democratic House and 50% Republican at least one chamber implies Republicans retaining the Senate as the most likely balance.
- Democrats heavily favored to win the House in 2026 Kalshi 86%
- The Kalshi contract prices Democrats winning the House at 86%, resolving via Library of Congress.
- CNN analysis flags Republican structural defenses that could cap Democratic gains, but the market is not fading the wave narrative at this price level.
- The companion Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber sits at 48%, implying the Senate remains genuinely contested as the House leans Democratic.
- The Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15) at 86% for Republicans winning the House appears directionally contradicted by the Kalshi contract at 86% for Democrats; treat both with caution pending clarification of resolution scope.
- Democrats winning the House in 2026 stays heavily favored Kalshi 84%
- Kalshi prices Democrats winning the US House in the 2026 midterms at 84%.
- Despite Trump's active midterm engagement, prediction markets assign only a 16% chance Republicans retain the House.
- The 74% Kalshi odds on a blue wave (CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2) show even broader Democratic gains are considered more likely than not.
- Kalshi also puts only 48% on Republicans holding at least one chamber (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451), meaning Senate retention is the primary GOP path to avoiding a sweep.
- Democrats taking back the House stays heavily favored Kalshi 84%
- Kalshi puts 84% probability on Democrats winning the U.S. House in the next election, a strongly favored outcome.
- The White House staff exodus, including Leavitt's departure, is consistent with the market's heavily Democratic lean but does not by itself move the needle on pricing.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) puts only 47% on Republicans holding at least one chamber, implying the Senate is the GOP's main remaining path to relevance.
- Kalshi resolves via Library of Congress records; the contract settles on official chamber control, so partial gains without a majority flip would resolve NO.
- Democrats favored to retake the House, odds stay high Kalshi 84%
- Kalshi puts 84% odds on Democrats winning the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms, resolves via Library of Congress.
- Intra-party Republican anger over new tariffs, combined with voters ranking affordability as the top concern, is consistent with the strong Democratic pricing.
- Separately, the Kalshi 'blue tsunami' contract (CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610) sits at only 39%, suggesting markets see a Democratic House win as likely but not a sweep scenario.
- Resolves via Library of Congress certification of House majority composition after November 2026 elections.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/controlh-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/controlh-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("controlh-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
"slug": "controlh-2026",
"question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"house-elections",
"2026-midterms",
"party-control",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8740204,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}