Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election? [ resolves 2026-11 – 2027-02 ]
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · stated precedence rule
Library of Congress committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Democrats win the House in 2026? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Democrats heavily favored to win the House in market pricing Kalshi 94%
- The Kalshi contract puts Democrats winning the US House at 94%, a near-certain market outcome as of election eve.
- News coverage flags the House as the decisive chamber for sector policy; Kalshi's 94% pricing is consistent with that framing.
- The Polymarket Senate control contract (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90) prices Democrats winning the Senate at 73%, implying a sweep scenario is the modal outcome.
- A Democratic House plus Democratic Senate result would have significant implications for defense spending, crypto regulation, and AI oversight priorities discussed in the story.
- Democrats winning U.S. House stays heavily favored Kalshi 94%
- The Kalshi contract on Democrats winning the U.S. House is priced at 94%, placing heavy odds on a Democratic flip.
- News of Trump's tele-rally push to limit GOP losses and a Democratic Michigan intraparty feud has not shifted this contract off its heavily favored position.
- At 94%, the market is pricing near-certainty of a Democratic House, the 6% residual captures upset risk, counting errors, or unresolved close races.
- Resolves via the Library of Congress; the Kansas Senate Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-S6Y29BSL46) sits at 49%, suggesting Senate control remains genuinely contested.
- Democrats near full pricing to retake the House Kalshi 91%
- Kalshi prices Democrats winning the US House at 91%, treating a Democratic takeover as near-certain.
- This sits well above the 68% Democratic Senate odds on Polymarket, signaling the market sees the House as a much safer Democratic pickup than the Senate.
- Resolves via Library of Congress; settlement requires formal certification of House composition after all races are called.
- The 65% Republican odds on holding at least one chamber (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) are arithmetically consistent: a split Congress outcome is the modal market scenario.
- Democrats heavily favored to win the US House in 2026 midterms Kalshi 90%
- The Kalshi prediction market puts Democrats winning the US House at 90%, a strong consensus lean one week before Election Day.
- News analysis describing a Democratic wave environment is consistent with the 90% Kalshi read; no price move can be confirmed from available data.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90) prices Democratic Senate control at 66%, suggesting the market sees the House as a safer flip than the Senate.
- Resolution via Library of Congress; the House contract resolves on certified seat counts, not election-night calls, which can add a lag if results are contested.
- Democrats heavily favored to take back the House in 2026 Kalshi 91%
- Kalshi prediction market puts a 91% probability on Democrats winning the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms.
- Fresh polling showing a widening Democratic generic-ballot lead and declining Trump approval is consistent with the market's lopsided pricing.
- A companion Kalshi contract puts Republicans holding at least one chamber at 68%, implying markets see the Senate as the GOP's best remaining shot.
- Kalshi's separate blue-tsunami contract sits at 60%, suggesting a House flip is treated as near-certain but a full wave is still a coin flip.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/controlh-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/controlh-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("controlh-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
"slug": "controlh-2026",
"question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"house-elections",
"2026-midterms",
"party-control",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8740204,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}