Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (193D) ]
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (1) · stated precedence rule
- Library of Congress source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- Democrats firmly favored to win the US House in midterms Kalshi 83%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices an 83% chance Democrats win the US House in the next election.
- An 8-point Democratic generic ballot lead from CNN is broadly consistent with the high Kalshi probability on a House flip.
- The Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships than Democrats after the midterms sits at 50%, suggesting a more mixed down-ballot picture.
- The Library of Congress is the named resolution source; the contract settles on official certified election results.
- Democrats winning the US House stays heavily favored at 84 percent Kalshi 84%
- The Kalshi contract prices an 84% chance Democrats win the US House in the next election, resolving via Library of Congress.
- Democratic polling leads and a focused affordability message from Jeffries are consistent with the strong odds, but the market prices in that structural advantages matter.
- Companion Kalshi event CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451 puts only 43% on Republicans controlling at least one chamber after midterms, showing Democrats are favored in the House but the Senate remains contested.
- Redistricting gains for Republicans cited in news are already in the market; the 84% hold suggests traders view them as insufficient to overcome the Democratic polling advantage.
- Democrats retaking the House in 2026 solidifies near strong consensus Kalshi 79%
- Kalshi prices a 79% probability Democrats win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms.
- The NBC poll's five-point Democratic generic ballot lead is broadly consistent with the 79% pricing: markets and surveys align on a Democratic House lean.
- The Polymarket House contract (CM-EVT-2N6T7M0T15) prices 83% for Democrats, a small cross-venue gap suggesting Polymarket is modestly more bullish on a Democratic flip.
- Senate control (CM-EVT-M9WJY06T90) prices only 44% for Republicans, implying a potential split-chamber outcome is the market-implied base case heading into November.
- Democrats favored to retake the House at 78 percent Kalshi 78%
- Kalshi prices a 78% chance Democrats win control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterms.
- Republican urgency on a pre-recess legislative package reflects awareness of the hostile electoral environment the market is pricing.
- The companion Kalshi contract on Republicans controlling at least one chamber sits at only 23%, a structurally consistent read.
- Resolves via Library of Congress official certification of House composition following the November 2026 election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/controlh-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/controlh-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("controlh-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FV8MR86S63",
"slug": "controlh-2026",
"question": "Will the Democratic Party win the U.S. House in the next election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-politics",
"house-elections",
"2026-midterms",
"party-control",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8138063,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}