Will Congress approve an Iran deal by 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congress approves Iran deal in 2026 | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $12K | C | 0x066561…87ae |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes" if the United States Congress passes a qualifying bill or resolution which, by its operative text, expresses approval regarding an agreement where the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States are both parties by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill or resolution must be a bill or joint resolution passed identically in both chambers, or a Senate resolution giving advice and consent to a treaty submitted by the President.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the United States Congress (https://congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · single authority
congress.gov committed source United States Congress (https://congress.gov) from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Congress approving an Iran deal by 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 9%
- Polymarket puts 9% on Congress approving an Iran deal by 2026, a low but non-trivial probability given the new political landscape.
- Democrats taking Congress on an anti-war platform adds modest pressure toward a deal, but the market still sees a congressional Iran deal this year as unlikely.
- Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-WD982793G1 prices a full U.S. invasion of Iran at 12%, suggesting the market sees continued conflict as more likely than a legislative resolution.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the compressed year-end timeline is the main constraint keeping this probability in single digits.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/congress-approves-iran-deal-in-2026-20260616005217959/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/congress-approves-iran-deal-in-2026-20260616005217959 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("congress-approves-iran-deal-in-2026-20260616005217959") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PB2TWNBNL3",
"slug": "congress-approves-iran-deal-in-2026-20260616005217959",
"question": "Will Congress approve an Iran deal by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"iran-nuclear-deal",
"us-congress",
"trump",
"foreign-policy",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12381,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 77,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://congress.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "congress.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "congress.gov",
"url": "https://congress.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "United States Congress (https://congress.gov)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}